Drought conditions are trending in the wrong direction across key parts of the U.S. southern Plains as farmers approach the fall planting season for the 2027 winter wheat crop.
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor released Thursday showed 39% of No. 1 producer Kansas was experiencing some form of drought as of Tuesday, up from 32% a week earlier and about 27% through much of July.
While Kansas remains considerably better off than it was earlier in the growing season — when 47% of the state was in drought as of mid-June — the recent reversal suggests soil moisture conditions are deteriorating again just weeks before winter wheat seeding normally begins to accelerate.
The situation is more serious in neighbouring Oklahoma, where 95% of the state was in some form of drought as of Tuesday up from 93% the previous week and 60% on Aug. 4.
That represents a particularly rapid deterioration since late July. Only 44% of Oklahoma was in drought on July 28, meaning that share of the state impacted by some form of drought has more than doubled in about three weeks.
Oklahoma had seen a substantial improvement earlier in the summer, with drought coverage falling from 62% in mid-June to around 43% to 44% during much of July, before conditions began worsening rapidly in August.
Conditions are markedly worse in both states compared to a year ago, when less than 4% of Kansas and less than 2% of Oklahoma were in some form of drought.
As for Colorado, some form of drought was impacting about 91% of the state as of Tuesday, while Nebraska was at 78%. That compares to 54% and 24% a year earlier, respectively.
The renewed dryness is also showing up in the broader winter wheat production area. Nationally, 54% of U.S. winter wheat production was affected by some form of drought as of Tuesday, up from 31% last year.
Adequate soil moisture will become increasingly important through September and October as producers seed the 2027 winter wheat crop and look for sufficient moisture to support germination and early establishment ahead of winter dormancy.
