U.S. soybean ending stocks were unchanged from last month, as a higher crush estimate was offset by lower exports in the USDA’s monthly supply-demand update on Thursday
The unchanged carryout, at 350 million bu, came in just above the average pre-report trade estimate of 349 million bu and 25 million above the previous year.
The USDA raised its 2025-26 U.S. soybean crush forecast by 35 million bu from March to a new record high of 2.61 billion, up from 2.445 billion in 2024-25. Meanwhile, exports were cut by 35 million bu to 1.54 billion, further below 1.882 billion in 2024-25. The season-average farm price for soybeans was increased by 10 cents to $10.30/bu.
On the global side, 2025-26 soybean ending stocks were pegged at 124.8 million tonnes, little changed from the previous year but down from 125.3 million in March and below the average pre-report trade estimate of 125.5 million.
In South America, the USDA left Argentina’s 2025-26 soybean production unchanged from last month at 48 million tonnes, matching the 2024-25 estimate. Brazil’s 2025-26 crop was also unchanged from March at 180 million tonnes, up from 172.5 million in 2024-25 after the USDA raised that prior-year estimate by 1 million tonnes in this month’s report. The USDA did raise its 2025-26 Brazil soybean export estimate by 1 million tonnes from last month to 115 million, well above 103.1 million a year earlier.
China’s 2025-26 soybean imports were forecast at 112 million tonnes, unchanged from last month and up from 108 million in 2024-25.
Soybean futures were trading little changed this afternoon, following the report’s noon hour ET release.
