In the wake of larger production estimates, Agriculture Canada has raised its 2026-27 dry pea and lentil ending stocks estimates from last month
Updated monthly supply-demand estimates released by Ag Canada on Monday raised expected new-crop dry pea ending stocks by 200,000 tonnes from last month to 810,000 – still below the previous year's 990,000 – while lentil stocks were raised 300,000 tonnes to 1.54 million, compared to 1.415 million in 2025-26.
With this month's increase, the 2026-27 stocks-to-use ratio for peas now stands at 24%, down from 29% in 2025-26 but still up from 17% in 2024-25. The lentil stocks-to-use ratio of 59% is up from 55% a year earlier and up sharply from 26% in 2024-25.
For dry peas, Ag Canada trimmed its 2026-27 seeded area estimate slightly from last month to just over 3 million acres to reflect Statistics Canada's June 30 acreage report. However, Ag Canada also raised its dry pea yield forecast to 39 bu/acre, up from 36 bu in June.
The higher yield more than offset the acreage reduction, lifting forecast production to 3.15 million tonnes from 2.95 million in June. Total supply was raised to 4.16 million tonnes from 3.96 million, while exports were unchanged at 2.7 million tonnes.
Meanwhile, lentil seeded area for 2026-27 was cut more sharply to 3.9 million acres from 4.14 million acres in June and 4.38 million acres in 2025-26.
The lentil yield forecast was raised to approximately 1,517 lbs/acre, compared with about 1,267 lbs last month and roughly 1,722 lbs a year earlier. As a result, lentil production was bumped 300,000 tonnes higher to 2.65 million, still down from 3.363 million in 2025. Total supply was raised to 4.14 million tonnes from 3.84 million, while exports were unchanged at 2.3 million tonnes.
Ag Canada's average new-crop price forecasts for peas and lentils were left unchanged from June at $310 and $520/tonne, compared to $300 and $510 for 2025-26.
