An exceptionally strong El Nino could deepen drought across the U.S. Plains and threaten crop yields, water supplies, and food prices for several years, according to AccuWeather climate experts.
The weather forecaster said in a release Friday there is a 70% chance the El Nino that developed in early June will strengthen into a “Super El Nino” later this year. The event is expected to peak near the end of 2026 and persist into early 2027.
Although El Nino typically brings above-normal precipitation to the southern United States during its peak, it can produce drier conditions across northern and western regions. AccuWeather warned that the two or three years following a major event can also be substantially drier from Texas through the Dakotas.
That prospect is particularly concerning for agriculture because drought is already firmly established across portions of the Plains. As of June 16, extreme drought covered 50% of Nebraska, compared with none a year earlier. Extreme drought also affected 35% of Colorado, and 30% of Oklahoma.
Rainfall deficits are mounting in important crop and livestock regions as well, AccuWeather said. As of June 17, year-to-date precipitation was 46% below normal at Kearney, NB, while Oklahoma City, OK was 42% below average, and Denver, CO was 40% below average.
The lack of moisture could reduce yield potential for corn, soybeans, wheat, and other crops during the current growing season. Prolonged drought would also limit pasture growth, tighten forage and feed supplies, increase irrigation demand, and place additional pressure on livestock producers.
AccuWeather Founder and Executive Chair Joel Myers said a severe, multi-year drought could further stress soybeans and reduce crop production, potentially contributing to higher food prices. Water availability for farms, communities, and industry could also be harmed.
Past Super El Nino events in 1965-66, 1982-83 and 1997-98 were followed by persistent dryness across parts of the Plains, with drought in some areas lasting for years after El Niño ended.
AccuWeather raised the possibility of a “mini-Dust Bowl” if existing drought conditions intensify, although it stopped short of forecasting a repeat of the agricultural disaster of the 1930s. Modern soil-conservation practices have reduced the risk of widespread erosion, but prolonged heat and low soil moisture can reinforce each other, worsening drought and increasing the threat to crops.
The forecaster said conditions vary widely across the country, with parts of the South unusually wet even as drought affects the Plains and portions of the West, Southeast and Pacific Northwest.
