The USDA’s first survey-based yield estimates of the season point to a lower average U.S. corn yield in 2026 but only a modest decline for soybeans, with wide differences among major producing states.
In its August crop production estimates released Wednesday, the USDA pegged the national corn yield at 180.7 bu/acre, down from 186.5 bu in 2025. The U.S. soybean yield was forecast at 52.7 bu/acre, just below last year’s 53 bu.
In the biggest Corn Belt states, Iowa’s 2026 corn yield is estimated at 216 bu/acre, up 6 bu from 210 last year. Illinois is projected at 212 bu/acre, down 2 bu from 214. Closer to the Great Lakes, Michigan slipped to 174 bu/acre from 178, while Ohio posted a notable increase to 195 bu from 185. Meanwhile, the average North Dakota corn yield is forecast at 142 bu/acre, down sharply from 158 last year.
Despite Iowa’s higher yield, lower harvested acreage is expected to pull state corn production down slightly to 2.765 billion bu, a decline of less than 1% from 2025. Illinois corn production is forecast at 2.321 billion bu, down about 1%. Michigan production is forecast at 339.3 million bu, down roughly 4%, and North Dakota at 626.2 million bu, is down about 12%. Ohio stands out on the upside, with production forecast at 629.9 million bu, nearly 8% above last year.
For soybeans, the average Illinois yield is forecast at 67 bu/acre, up 4.5 bu from last year, while Michigan increased to 50 bu from 48.5 and Ohio climbed to 58 bu from 53. Iowa was an exception, with its soybean yield declining to 62 bu/acre from 63.5 last year. North Dakota was nearly steady at 34 bu, compared with 34.5 in 2025.
Illinois soybean production for this year is forecast at 698.8 million bu, up about 9%, while Iowa is expected to produce 603.3 million bu, up just over 1%. Estimated Michigan production, at 109.5 million bu, is up roughly 9%. Ohio soybean production is forecast to climb more than 10% to 285.9 million bu, while North Dakota production is expected to rise about 2% to 229.2 million bu.
The August estimates are particularly important because they mark the USDA’s first survey-based assessment of 2026 yields, replacing earlier projections that relied more heavily on historical trends and weather assumptions.
