U.S. farm income is expected to weaken in 2026 as rising production expenses offset stronger crop receipts and sharply higher government payments.
USDA’s Economic Research Service on Thursday forecast 2026 U.S. net farm income, a broad measure of sector profits, at $158.4 billion, down $4.3 billion or 2.6% from 2025 in nominal terms. Net cash farm income is projected at $176.4 billion, up just $70 million or 0.4%.
After adjusting for inflation, however, both measures are expected to decline more noticeably. Net farm income is forecast to fall 5.5%, or $9.1 billion, while net cash farm income is expected to decrease 2.5%, or $4.6 billion. Even so, both would remain above their 2006-25 averages.
Total farm cash receipts are forecast at $540.3 billion, down $1.7 billion or 0.3% from 2025.
Crop receipts are projected to rise $14.6 billion, or 6.1%, to $253 billion, led by stronger returns for corn, soybeans and cotton. Corn receipts are expected to increase $6.8 billion, or 11.3%, mainly on higher marketed volumes, while soybean receipts are forecast to rise $4.3 billion, or 10%, primarily because of higher prices. Wheat receipts are expected to decline $0.3 billion, or 2.5%.
Animal and animal product receipts are forecast to fall $16.4 billion, or 5.4%, to $287.3 billion after reaching a record in 2025. Egg receipts are expected to account for much of the decline, while milk and hog receipts are also projected lower. Cattle and calf receipts, however, are forecast to rise $7 billion, or 5.2%, on stronger prices.
Government support is expected to increase sharply, with direct payments forecast at $47.4 billion, up $19.5 billion from 2025.
At the same time, total production expenses are projected to rise $21.2 billion, or 4.5%, to $492.8 billion, with higher livestock purchases, fertilizer and fuel costs accounting for much of the increase.
