U.S. HRS Wheat Output Projected to Decline



It looks like US Hard Red Spring production will decline this year, even if total all wheat output is projected to increase.

Plugging in the numbers from the USDA first supply-demand estimates for the 2019-20 season last week, Brian Basting of Advance Trading said the 2019 Hard Red Spring crop is being estimated by the government at around 540 million bu, down 8% from the previous year’s crop of 587 million bu.

Basting’s estimate was derived by taking the USDA’s all wheat production estimate of 1.897 billion and subtracting off the survey-based winter wheat production estimate of 1.27 billion, along with probable durum and other spring wheat output based on current planted area estimates and trendline yields.

However, Basting stressed the HRS production estimate is simply an implied number, still subject to the final planted area and growing season weather. (The USDA’s first survey-based estimate of spring wheat production is not due until July).

Back in its March prospective plantings report, the USDA pegged intended HRS area at 12.4 million acres, down modestly from a year earlier. But the weather remains a major wildcard, with producers in the major production states making better progress this past week but planting still lagging badly due to earlier overly wet and cool conditions.

On this side of the border, the USDA’s report forecast 2019 Canadian all wheat production at 34.5 million tonnes, up from 31.8 million a year earlier.

Source: DePutter Publishing Ltd.

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