U.S. farmer sentiment declined in April as rising input costs, weaker current financial conditions, and uncertainty tied to fertilizer markets weighed on producer confidence.
The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer fell to 121 in April, down from 127 in March, based on a survey of 400 farmers conducted April 13-17. The decline was led by an 11-point drop in the Current Conditions Index, while the Future Expectations Index slipped 4 points. Expectations are also well below year-ago levels, with the future index 28 points below April 2025.
High input costs remained the dominant concern, cited by 46% of respondents as their biggest worry. Input availability also became a larger concern, rising to 14% from 11% in March, likely reflecting uncertainty in fertilizer and natural gas markets following the Iran conflict.
Farm financial conditions also appeared to weaken. Only 15% of producers said their operations were better off than a year earlier. Looking ahead, 28% expected worse financial performance over the next 12 months, compared with 25% who expected improvement. The Farm Capital Investment Index dropped 9 points to 44, its lowest level since October 2024, pointing to reduced appetite for major purchases.
The Iran conflict was a major source of concern. About two-thirds of respondents expected their 2026 net farm income to decline because of the conflict’s impact on fertilizer and natural gas prices. Among farmers who planted corn in 2025, about half expected 2026 corn breakeven prices to increase by up to 6%, 14% expected breakeven prices to increase 6% to 9%, and 37% expected breakeven prices to increase 10% or more
Broader confidence also softened. The share of producers who said the U.S. is headed in the right direction fell to 57% in April from 65% in March. Long-term optimism weakened as well, with fewer respondents expecting higher land values five years from now.
The survey also showed a sharp split between sectors. Only 31% of respondents expected good times ahead for crop producers, compared with 69% for livestock producers, underscoring the heavier margin pressure facing crop farms.
