Although most of Canada’s primary agri-food exports were spared from the latest round of U.S. tariffs, the impact on several agricultural sectors is still going to sting, according to an RBC Thought Leadership report.
Released Wednesday, the report said grains, oilseeds, livestock, major protein products and many processed foods were excluded from the new Section 338 tariff list. Still, dairy, honey, horticulture and alcoholic beverages face significant exposure.
The U.S. imposed 50% tariffs on more than 500 Canadian goods after trade negotiations collapsed, covering roughly 5% — or about US$20 billion — of Canada’s exports to the U.S.
Dairy was hit unevenly, with tariffs targeting whey, milk and cream concentrates and various milk-protein ingredients. Canada sold more than $100 million worth of affected whey products to the U.S. in 2025, although yogurt, butter and cheese were spared.
Honey producers are also vulnerable. Approximately $30 million worth of Canadian honey — more than half of the country’s exports — went to the U.S. last year. Glucose and glucose syrup were included as well, while maple syrup escaped the tariffs.
Horticulture faces broader exposure, with most bulbs, cut flowers and live plants affected. Canada exported about $155 million worth of cut flowers and flower buds to the U.S. in 2025, along with $52 million in bulbs and tubers. Essential oils were also widely targeted.
Alcoholic beverages face one of the largest agri-food hits, with 63 tariff lines covering more than $1.2 billion worth of beer, wine, fermented beverages and spirits.
Despite those sector-specific impacts, RBC said the tariffs do not materially change the broader outlook for Canadian agriculture.
"While these tariffs are severe for the sectors impacted, and will drive up prices for U.S. consumers, they do not change the macroeconomic picture for Canadian agriculture," the report said.
Regionally, British Columbia, Quebec and Ontario face the greatest exposure, with roughly 10% to 15% of their U.S. exports affected. The Prairies and Atlantic provinces are largely spared because key exports such as energy, potash and grains remain outside the tariff list.
