The USDA made just modest changes to its 2026-27 U.S. wheat numbers in updated supply-demand estimates on Wednesday, while global wheat ending stocks were revised higher on reduced Black Sea shipments.
The USDA trimmed its 2026 U.S. production estimate by 5 million tonnes from last month to 1.531 billion bu, a decline that dropped the current year's ending stocks forecast by an identical 5 million bu to 717 million bu – now 22% below a year earlier.
Globally, 2026-27 when ending stocks were raised 410,000 tonnes from last month to 273.25 million, as marked increases for Ukraine and Russia - due to falling exports amid ongoing military strikes on each's port facilities – helped to more than offset declines for the EU, Australia, and other countries.
Total 2026 U.S. wheat production was pegged at 1.531 billion bu, down 5 million bu from July. Winter wheat production was down just slightly from July at 990 million bu., while spring wheat output was estimated at 474 million bu, down 1 million bu. Expected durum production was cut 5 million bu to 66 million bu.
The lower production estimate reduced total U.S. wheat supply by 5 million bu to 2.591 billion bu. Beginning stocks remained at 920 million bu, while imports were unchanged at 140 million bu.
Domestic use was held at 1.099 billion bu, and exports were unchanged at 775 million bu.
USDA raised the projected season-average farm price by 20 cents/bu from last month to US$6.20/bu, citing the lower stocks-to-use ratio and stronger futures and cash price expectations.
The global wheat balance sheet loosened slightly despite lower production.
Global production was lowered to 819.3 million tonnes from 819.97 million tonnes, with prolonged above-average temperatures during grain fill weighing on EU and UK yields.
Global wheat trade was reduced 340,000 tonnes to 212.71 million tonnes. USDA lowered export forecasts for Russia and Ukraine because of logistical disruptions tied to escalating conflict in the Sea of Azov and Black Sea, partly offset by increased exports from Canada and Kazakhstan.
Ukraine wheat production for 2026-27 was raised to 25.4 million tonnes from 24 million in July, while exports were dropped 1 million to 13.5 million. Russia production was left steady from last month at 88.5 million, but exports were lowered 1.5 million to 46 million.
Canada wheat production and exports were both raised 1 million tonnes from last month to 35 million and 28.5 million, respectively.
