The USDA raised its 2026-27 U.S. wheat ending stocks forecast by more than expected on Friday, while global ending stocks were little changed from last month.
The October supply-demand report pegged U.S. wheat ending stocks at 740 million bu, up 23 million from September. Analysts surveyed ahead of the report were anticipating a minor increase in ending stocks of just 4 million bu.
Despite the upward revision, projected U.S. wheat ending stocks remain 20% below the previous year's 920 million bu.
Wheat futures were trading between 13 and 20 cents/bu lower this afternoon.
U.S. wheat production was raised by 3 million bu from last month to 1.534 billion, as a slightly higher yield of 48.1 bu/acre more than offset a reduction in harvested area to 31.9 million acres. Production remains the smallest since 1970.
Total U.S. wheat supplies were raised by 8 million bu, reflecting higher production and imports.
On the demand side, the USDA increased domestic use by 10 million bu, entirely due to higher feed and residual consumption. However, projected exports were cut by 25 million bu to 750 million amid slower sales and shipments of Hard Red Winter and Hard Red Spring wheat, the USDA said.
The USDA lowered its projected season-average wheat farm price by 10 cents to $6.30 bu.
Globally, wheat ending stocks were trimmed slightly to 276 million tonnes, compared to 276.3 million in September.
World wheat production was virtually unchanged at 822.4 million tonnes, with Canada's forecast raised by 500,000 to 36.5 million and the European Union's lowered by 800,000 to 133 million.
Global wheat consumption was increased by 1.2 million tonnes to 827.9 million, while projected trade declined by 2.8 million to 209 million.
Russia's wheat export forecast was cut by 3 million tonnes to 40 million, its lowest in five years, as ongoing Black Sea conflict and logistical disruptions continue to restrict shipments. Ukraine wheat production and export estimates were unchanged from September at 26 million and 12.5 million, respectively.
Meanwhile, Canadian wheat exports were raised by 500,000 tonnes to 30.5 million.
