The first weekly condition rating for the 2026 U.S. winter wheat has fallen short of trade expectations.
Monday’s USDA crop progress report pegged the nationwide winter wheat crop at just 35% good to excellent as of Sunday. That’s well down from 48% last year and below the average pre-report trade guess of 42%. In its final weekly crop progress report for the 2025 growing season in late November, the USDA rated the winter wheat crop at 48% good to excellent.
Dryness and above-normal temperatures across the U.S. southern Plains have raised concerns about the condition and yield potential of the 2026 winter wheat crop, particularly in key states like Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. Almost one-third of the 2026 U.S. crop (31%) was rated in poor to very poor condition.
In the No. 1 winter wheat production state of Kansas, the 2026 crop was rated 38% good to excellent, down from 62% in November and 51% at this time last year. Nearly one quarter of the Kansas crop (24%) was rated poor to very poor.
The situation in Oklahoma is even more dire, with just 12% of the crop rated good to excellent as of Sunday, compared to 40% in November and 42% last year. More than half of the Oklahoma crop (54%) was in poor to very poor condition.
The Texas crop came in at 17% good to excellent as of Sunday, versus 26% in November and last year.
On the other hand, the Soft Red crop in Michigan was pegged at 58% good to excellent as of Sunday, 8 points better than a year ago, and little changed from 59% in November.
At 63% good to excellent, the Ohio crop was 3 points higher than last year and a single point above the November rating.
An estimated 7% of the U.S. winter wheat crop was heading as of Sunday, 2 points ahead of last year and the five-year average.
Meanwhile, 2% of the U.S. spring wheat crop was reported planted as of Sunday, 1 point behind last year and the average. The South Dakota crop was 4% in the ground, behind 8% last year and 7% on average. No planting was reported in Minnesota, Montana, or North Dakota compared to 1% or 2% on average.
U.S. corn planting was an estimated 3% complete as of Sunday, 1 point ahead of last year and the average. Most of the planting to date has occurred in the southern production states, including Texas (59% complete), and Tennessee (18%), although both Illinois and Indiana were 1% done. No planting was reported yet in the top production state of Iowa.
