The 2026 U.S. winter wheat crop is forecast to be the smallest in more than six decades, as drought across the Plains sharply reduced production prospects for Hard Red Winter wheat.
The USDA on Thursday pegged total American winter wheat production for this year at 1.03 billion bu, down 2% from its May forecast and now 27% below the 2025 crop of 1.4 billion. If realized, it would be the smallest total winter wheat crop since 1965.
The hardest-hit areas were in the drought-plagued central and southern Plains, where Hard Red Winter production was projected at 497 million bushels, down 3% from May and sharply below last year’s 804 million. That would be the smallest Hard Red crop since 1957.
Kansas, the largest U.S. winter wheat state, is forecast to produce 203 million bu, down 41.5% from 346.8 million last year. The average expected state yield was cut to 35 bu/acre from 37 in May and 51 bu in 2025.
Oklahoma production was forecast at 64.4 million bu, down 39.5% from 106.4 million last year, with the yield unchanged from May at 28 bu but well below last year’s 38. Texas production was estimated at 51 million bu, compared with 85.1 million in 2025, although the yield improved to 30 bu from 28 in May, versus 37 last year.
Nebraska production was pegged at 16.2 million bu, less than half of last year’s 37.8 million, with the yield steady from May at 28 bu, compared with 47 last year. Colorado output was forecast at 33.6 million bu, down 52.7% from 71.1 million in 2025, with yield unchanged from May at 21 bu, versus 38 last year.
Meanwhile, Soft Red Winter areas poised to fare better. Michigan production is estimated at 42.8 million bu, down slightly from 44.1 million last year, while its yield held at a record-high 90 bu/acre, unchanged from May and 2025. Ohio production was forecast at 41.3 million bu, down 9.4% from 45.6 million in 2025, with yield at 86 bu, up from 85 in May and equal to last year. Illinois production was pegged at 53.3 million bu, down from 61.6 million, with the average state yield raised to 86 bu from 84 in May but still below 88 bu last year.
