An already small 2026 U.S. winter wheat crop has been cut further, tightening projected 2026-27 U.S. wheat ending stocks in USDA’s June supply-demand update.
USDA pegged total U.S. wheat production at 1.543 billion bu, down 18 million from May, with the national all wheat yield lowered 0.5 bu to 47 bu/acre. With imports, domestic use and exports all left unchanged, the smaller production forecast flowed directly through the balance sheet, cutting projected ending stocks by 18 million bu to 744 million, down 20% from a year earlier and a steeper fall than expected by the trade.
The reduction was driven mainly by a smaller winter wheat crop. USDA forecast winter wheat production at 1.03 billion bu, down 2% from the May 1 forecast and 27% below 2025. The average winter wheat yield was estimated at 46.8 bu/acre, down 0.8 bu from May and well below last year’s 54.9 bu.
Hard Red Winter wheat production was estimated at 497 million bu, down 3% from last month, while soft red winter output was pegged at 300 million, down less than 1%. White winter wheat production was forecast at 233 million bu, up less than 1% from May.
Despite the tighter U.S. stocks outlook, USDA lowered the 2026-27 season-average farm price by 50 cents from May to $6.00/bu.
Globally, the June wheat outlook was somewhat more comfortable. USDA raised 2026-27 world wheat supplies by 1.7 million tonnes to 1.1 billion, while global consumption was increased 1.4 million tonnes to 824.6 million. World trade was raised 300,000 tonnes to 212 million, and global ending stocks were nudged 400,000 tonnes higher to 275.4 million.
Production changes were mixed among major exporters and producers. Russia’s crop was raised 2 million tonnes to 88 million on improved weather and yield prospects, while Turkey was increased 1.5 million tonnes to a record 22.5 million. Ukraine’s wheat crop was raised 500,000 tonnes to 23.5 million.
Those increases were partly offset by a 2-million-tonne reduction in Australia, where production is now forecast at 28 million tonnes. Pakistan production was also lowered.
Wheat futures were trading 1-8 cents/bu higher this afternoon.
