Updated Saskatchewan Yield Estimates Mixed 



Oats, canola, and lentils were among those crops seeing upward yield revisions in the latest weekly Saskatchewan crop report, while barley and mustard saw declines. 


Updated yield estimates from the province on Thursday pegged this year’s average Saskatchewan canola yield at 35 bu/acre, up 1 bu from the early September estimate although still below the current Statistics Canada projection of 37.8 bu. The average oat yield was bumped up 9 bu from September to 89 bu, still well off the StatsCan estimate of 96 bu, while the average lentil yield was increased to 1,204 lbs/acre from 1,174 lbs, but below the StatsCan estimate of 1,362 lbs. 


On the other hand, the average Saskatchewan barley yield was trimmed 2 bu from early September to 62 bu/acre (versus 64.1 bu for StatsCan), while mustard was dropped to just 821 lbs/acre from 1,102 lbs but closer to StatsCan’s 713 lbs. 


As for other crops, the province’s spring wheat and durum yield estimates were unchanged from September at 43 bu and 30 bu/acre, respectively, compared to 47.8 and 36 bu/acre for StatsCan. At 1,273 lbs/acre, the average canary yield was little changed from 1,266 lbs in September and a bit below the StatsCan estimate of 1,314 lbs. Flax is now estimated by the province at 24 bu/acre, up 1 bu from its September estimate and above 22.3 bu for StatsCan. At 34 bu/acre, the province’s pea yield estimate is 4.1 bu above the StatsCan projection. 


The weather over the past week was excellent for harvest, the crop report said. An estimated 90% of the Saskatchewan crop was in the bin as of Monday, up from 81% a week earlier and well ahead of the five-year average of 82%. However, some producers have been struggling with heavy fog and dew in the mornings that has delayed their harvest activities until the afternoon, making for short days and less progress, the report added. 


Meanwhile, high humidity in many parts of the southeast, east-central and northeast is making it difficult to combine and has also led to grain coming off at higher amounts of moisture than normal. Producers must dry down the grain in order to store it properly. 


Harvest in the southwest and west-central regions is virtually now complete, with mostly flax waiting to be harvested, which will likely occur after the next heavy killing frost. The northwest region was 94% harvested as of Monday, followed by the northeast at 87%, the southeast at 86% and the east central at 81%. 


The harvest of lentils and field peas has finished. An estimated 98% of the durum, 97% of the chickpeas, 93% of the spring wheat, 90% of the barley, 82% of canola and 66% of the flax was combined as of Monday. 


Once again, there was very little rain this past week, with only trace amounts being recorded for most regions. Some parts of the southwest received 2 to 3 mm but it did very little to improve soil moisture conditions. All areas of the province are reporting that they are either extremely dry or becoming drier each week. This includes the southeast and east-central regions, which started the season with an abundance of moisture. 


Cropland topsoil moisture was rated as 28% adequate, 41% short and 31% very short as of Monday, versus 1% surplus, 34% adequate, 35% short and 30% very short a week earlier. 


Limited moisture throughout much of the harvest season has, however, allowed crop quality to remain high, especially Hard Red Spring Wheat which is being reported as 75% 1CW, 23% 2CW and 2% 3CW. The 10-year average for Hard Red Spring Wheat is 39% 1CW, 35% 2CW, 17% 3CW and 9% 4CW/feed. 


Most crop damage this week was due to wind, waterfowl and wildlife. Wind continues to impact unharvested crops by blowing swaths around, as well as shelling out crops and causing lodging. 


Southeast: 

There was very good harvesting weather over the past week which allowed many producers to wrap up their operations or get very close to finishing. Some producers still have canola and flax to straight-cut. Regionally, 86 per cent of the crop is now in the bin which is just behind the five-year average of 90 per cent. Late seeding dates resulted in a later start to harvest for many producers in the region. If the weather remains calm and dry then producers predict they will be wrapped up harvest in little over a week but any rain will delay progress. 


There was very little precipitation in the region this week which allowed for harvest to continue and ensured that grain quality was not negatively impacted. Hard Red Spring Wheat was graded as 70 per cent 1CW, 27 per cent 2CW and three per cent 3CW. These grade ratings are very impressive, most of the downgrading was due to bleaching or disease related issues. 


Cropland topsoil moisture is rated as one per cent surplus, 56 per cent adequate, 34 per cent short and nine per cent very short. While many areas of the region received more rain than last year, there are many producers who are seeing their soils, pastures and dugouts dry up very quickly and will need a very good rain before winter settles in. 


Estimated yields for the region are stronger than last year but still disappointing for some producers who missed out on the rain over the growing season. The yields for spring wheat and canola are very strong with 45 bu/ac and 38 bu/ac respectively. Durum is estimated to yield 47 bu/ac, barley 71 bu/ac and oats 84 bu/ac. 


Southwest: 

Producers are taking their time combining the last few canola fields before moving on to their flax fields, many of which are still not ready for harvest. Producers would like to see a hard frost that would allow them to combine the remaining flax and close the book on harvest for the 2022 season. Harvest has reached 99 per cent, ahead of the five-year average of 94 per cent. Producers would also like to see a large general rain sweep across the region over the course of a couple days to allow the soil moisture to be recharged. 


Yields in the region were a disappointment for most while a few noticed as light increases from last year. Spring wheat was estimated to be yielding 25 bu/ac, durum 24 bu/ac, oats 48 bu/ac, barley 39 bu/ac, flax 16 bu/ac, canola 18 bu/ac and lentils 1,000 lb/ac. 


One positive of the dry growing and harvest conditions is that grain quality remained high for hard red spring wheat, it was rated as 65 per cent 1CW, 31 per cent 2CW and four per cent 3CW. 


Very little rainfall was received over the past week in the region which has led to a further decline in topsoil moisture and water availability for livestock. Some areas received two or three mm but this was not enough to make any difference to the extremely dry conditions of both cropland and pasture land. Cropland topsoil moisture is now rated as nine per cent adequate, 31 per cent short and 60 per cent very short. Conditions for many producers and their livestock are becoming grim and without rainfall soon many producers will be forced to reduce their cattle herds even more than they already have. 


East-Central: 

There was good harvest progress over the past week, even with shortened days due to heavy fog and dewy mornings delaying producer starts until the early afternoon. Harvest progress has reached 81 per cent just ahead of the five-year average of 76 per cent. Producers are predicting that harvest will be wrapped up in about a week to ten days as long as the weather holds out and no rainfall is received. The majority of crop left to combine is canola and producers are reporting that yields have improved greatly in some areas when compared to last year. 


There were only trace amounts of rainfall reported this past week, most moisture came from the early morning fog and dew. While most of the region received greater amounts of precipitation over the growing season than last year, after several weeks without a significant rain, producers have found their fields to be drying up very quickly. Cropland topsoil moisture is rated as one per cent surplus, 29 per cent adequate, 50 per cent short and 20 per cent very short.  


Yield estimates for the region show a large improvement over last year and many producers are extremely happy with the amount of grain they have in the bin. Hard red spring wheat is estimated to yield 46 bu/ac, durum 40 bu/ac, flax 27 bu/ac, canola 39 bu/ac and lentils 1,361 lb/ac. Hard red spring wheat was also reported to be graded as 72 per cent 1CW, 26 per cent 2CW, one per cent 3CW and one per cent 4CW/feed. 


West-Central: 

More producers completed their harvest operations this past week after another week of dry weather allowed for the last of their crop to be harvested without interruption. Harvest progress is currently at 99 per cent and well ahead of the five-year average of 88 per cent. Another fast harvest can be attributed to the extremely dry conditions in much of the region and how poor some of the crop was. 


There was little rain over the past week and many producers are hoping for rain before winter comes. More importantly, they are hoping for very large rain next spring.  Without significant rainfall, producers will not be able to begin the 2023 season with enough moisture. Moisture conditions in the region continue to become more desperate week to week. Cropland topsoil moisture is rated as eight per cent adequate, 45 per cent short and 47 per cent very short.  


Crop yield estimates for parts of the region are higher than anticipated due to some producers getting the rains they needed at the right time, for others their yields clearly indicate they had very little rain. For the region, hard red spring wheat is yielding 33 bu/ac, durum 29 bu/ac, barley 39 bu/ac, flax 19 bu/ac, canola 26 bu/ac and lentils 900 lb/ac. While yields were disappointing for many, quality for hard red spring wheat was rated as 86 per cent 1CW, 13 per cent 2CW, and two per cent 3CW. 


Northeast: 

Another week of good weather has allowed for great progress to be made across the region; many more producers have finished their harvest operations while others are very close to being done. Producers in the region have 87 per cent of the crop in the bin, well ahead of the five-year average of 75 per cent for this time of year. Producers were very nervous about a potentially long harvest, but thankfully, the weather has cooperated and they were able to get large amounts of their crop off without experiencing large losses due to frost or an early snowfall. 


Like the rest of the province, very little precipitation was received and while that helped harvest progress it has also caused topsoil moisture to decline. Cropland topsoil moisture is rated as 63 per cent adequate, 36 per cent short and one per cent very short.  


Yield estimates across the region appear to be very good and many producers are extremely happy with what they are seeing go into their bins. Hard red spring wheat is yielding 55 bu/ac, oats 113 bu/ac, barley 81 bu/ac, flax 30 bu/ac and canola 42 bu/ac. Some producers of course saw lower yields either due to drier conditions or complications earlier in the growing season. 


Northwest: 

Producers in this region took advantage of great weather over the past week and have got 94 per cent of the crop in the bin, this is well ahead of the five-year average of 60 per cent. This region has experienced some difficult harvest conditions in the past few years with too much rain or even snow causing multiple issues. It is encouraging to see that producers have been able to wrap up harvest without too many major weather-related issues. Conditions are extremely dry and producers would like to receive rain soon and have it keep raining for a multiple days. 


It was another very dry week across the region with only trace amounts of precipitation being reported. While the region saw more rainfall this year, it did not take long before the moisture dried up; cropland topsoil moisture is rated as 15 per cent adequate, 62 per cent short and 23 per cent very short.  


Even though much of the region experienced multiple weeks between rains, crop yield estimates are much higher than expected by many producers. Hard red spring wheat is yielding 53 bu/ac, oats 100 bu/ac, barley 74 bu/ac, flax 30 bu/ac and canola 40 bu/ac. Hard red spring wheat is also rated as 79 per cent 1CW, 20 per cent 2CW and one per cent 3CW. 




Source: DePutter Publishing Ltd.

Information contained herein is believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed by the parties providing it. Syngenta, DePutter Publishing Ltd. and their information sources assume no responsibility or liability for any action taken as a result of any information or advice contained in these reports, and any action taken is solely at the liability and responsibility of the user.