Updated Saskatchewan Yield Estimates Mostly Below StatsCan

With most of the province’s 2020 crop now in the bin, there continues to be some disagreement between Saskatchewan government and Statistics Canada yield estimates.

The latest weekly Saskatchewan crop on Thursday contained updated provincial yield estimates that were relatively little changed from what the province forecast in early September but in most cases – although not all – were below what Statistics Canada projected in its Sept. 14 crop production report.

In the case of canola for example, the province is now projecting this year’s average Saskatchewan yield at 36 bu/acre, up slightly from its early September estimate of 35 bu but below the StatsCan forecast of 39.6 bu. Similarly, the province is pegging the average spring wheat yield at 46 bu/acre, also up its early September estimate of 45 bu but almost 2 bu below the StatsCan forecast of 47.9 bu.

At 38 bu/acre, the province’s average durum yield estimate is unchanged from its September estimate but also almost 2 bu the StatsCan forecast of 39.9 bu. The province’s average expected oat yield of 87 bu/acre is up 4 bu from last month but still about 6 bu below StatsCan.

The average lentil yield was forecast by the province at 1,487 lbs/acre, down from its September estimate of 1,548 and below StatsCan’s estimate of 1,538, and the average chickpea yield, at 1,425 lbs/acre, is down slightly from last month but more than 400 lbs below the StatsCan estimate of 1,830 lbs/acre. The average canaryseed yield, at 1,218 lbs/acre, also dipped slightly from last month’s provincial estimate and is below the 1,313 lbs expected by StatsCan.

In its report, the province suggested some of the yield loss was likely caused by lack of moisture and high temperatures earlier in the summer.

Still, there were some higher yield estimates as well. The average Saskatchewan barley yield is now estimated by the province at 66 bu/acre, down slightly from its September forecast but 3 bu above the StatsCan estimate. At 39 bu/acre, the province’s average pea yield was steady from last month but well above the StatsCan projection of 34.5 bu/acre. The province’s average mustard yield was higher as well, rising to 987 lbs/acre from 850 lbs in September and slightly above the StatsCan forecast of 945 lbs.

Statistics Canada will release its final crop production report for the 2020 growing season on Dec. 3.

The overall Saskatchewan harvest was reported at 96% complete as of Monday, 20 points ahead of the five-year average.

Source: DePutter Publishing Ltd.

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