Much heftier soybean ending stocks are on the way for 2024-25 – both for the US and the world.
The USDA’s first supply-demand estimates for the upcoming new-crop marketing year on Friday projected US soy ending stocks at 445 million bu. That is up 105 million from the 2023-24 estimate, which remained unchanged from last month, and topped the average pre-report trade guess of 439 million. Meanwhile, 2024-25 global soybean stocks were pegged at 128.5 million, compared to 111.78 million for 2023-24 and the average trade estimate of 120.8 million.
Still, soybean futures were trading between about 2 and 8 cents/bu higher following the report’s release.
US soybean production for this year is estimated at 4.45 billion bu, up 285 million from last year based on a larger planted area and an average estimated yield of 52 bu/acre, versus 50.6 bu in 2023. At 4.805 billion bu, the total American soybean supply is projected 8% higher year-over-year.
Total estimated soybean demand for 2024-25 is seen almost 6% higher on the year at 4.36 billion bu, with the crush projected to rise 125 million bu from 2023-24 to 2.43 billion, reflecting increased demand for soyoil for biofuel use. US soybean exports are forecast at 1.825 billion bu, also up 125 million from 2023-24, with higher shipments this fall due to an expected smaller Brazilian 2024 harvest.
With strong seasonal exports after harvest followed by pressure from larger South American production in 2025, the US share of global soybean exports is forecast at 28%, down from the prior 5-year average of 32%, the USDA said.
Brazil’s soybean production for 2024-25 is forecast at 169 million tonnes, up sharply from the revised 2023-24 crop of 154 million, which was reduced 1 million tonnes from last month due to flooding in Rio Grande do Sul. Argentina’s soybean output is forecast at 51 million tons for 2024-25, up 1 million from the current year forecast, steady from April.
China’s soybean imports for 2024-25 are pegged at 109 million tonnes, up 4 million from the current year.
The 2024-25 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $11.20/bu compared with $12.55 in 2023-24. The soybean meal price is forecast at $330/short ton, down $50. The soybean oil price is forecast at 42 cents/lb, down 6 cents from 2023-24.
