Both US and global wheat ending stocks for 2025-26 are heavier this month, as modest supply increases and weaker domestic use outweighed demand growth.
In its latest monthly supply-demand update on Monday, the USDA projected slightly larger US wheat supplies for the 2025-26 marketing year, alongside lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks.
US beginning stocks were raised 4 million bu from last month, reflecting revisions in the latest grain stocks report, also released today. With no change to overall wheat production, the adjustment on the balance sheet came primarily from the demand side.
Feed and residual use was reduced by 20 million bu to 100 million, based on smaller-than-expected first-quarter disappearance and residual indicated in the grain stocks data. Seed use was trimmed by 1 million bushels to 61 million, partly reflecting updated acreage intentions in today’s winter wheat and canola seedings report. US wheat exports were left unchanged at 900 million bu, although the USDA made offsetting adjustments among individual wheat classes.
As a result, US wheat ending stocks for 2025-26 were raised 25 million bu from December to 926 million bu, an increase of roughly 8% from the previous marketing year. The heavier carryout weighed on prices, prompting the USDA to lower the US season-average farm price by a dime to $4.90/bu.
Globally, the wheat balance sheet also moved in a more burdensome direction. The USDA raised world wheat supplies by 4.3 million metric tonnes to 1.102 billion, driven primarily by higher production estimates for Argentina and Russia that more than offset a production cut for Turkey.
Argentina was the largest contributor to the global supply increase. With more than 90% of the country’s harvest complete, Argentine wheat production was raised 3.5 million metric tonnes from last month to a record 27.5 million, nearly 50% larger than the previous year. Russian wheat production was also revised higher, up 2 million tonnes to 89.5 million, based on higher preliminary yields reported by Rosstat.
Global wheat consumption for 2025-26 was raised 900,000 tonnes to 823.9 million metric tons, reflecting higher use in Russia, Ukraine, and Morocco. World wheat trade was also revised higher by 1.1 million tonnes to 219.8 million, as increased export potential from Argentina and Kazakhstan more than offset reduced export forecasts for the European Union and Ukraine.
Despite stronger consumption and trade, global ending stocks continued to climb. The USDA lifted world wheat ending stocks by 3.4 million tonnes from December to 278.25 million, above 260 million in 2024-25, with the bulk of the increase attributed to larger carryovers in Russia and Argentina.
Wheat futures were trading 2-6 cents/bu lower this afternoon.
