US and global wheat stocks are set to grow in 2025-26.
The USDA’s first supply-demand outlook for the 2025-26 marketing year on Thursday put US all wheat ending stocks at 923 million bu, well up from this month’s slightly downwardly revised old-crop stocks of 841 million bu and the highest in six years if accurate. Meanwhile, global stocks for 2025-26 were estimated at 265.73 million tonnes, up just marginally from 265.21 million the previous year.
The new-crop US and global wheat ending stocks estimates topped the average pre-report trade guesses of 859 million bu and 261.4 million tonnes, respectively.
For old-crop, US wheat ending stocks were down 5 million from April, while global stocks for increased from 260.7 million last month.
On the production side, the USDA is forecasting 2025-26 US all wheat output at 1.921 million bu, a decline of 3% as harvested area falls to 37.2 million acres from 38.5 million in 2024. However, the first survey-based estimate of winter wheat production puts expected output for this year at 1.382 billion bu, up 2% from last year, with Hard Red Winter and White accounting for most of the increase.
Hard Red Winter production, at 784 million bu, is estimated up 2% from a year ago, while Soft Red Winter, at 345 million bu, is up 1%. White Winter output is projected to rise 7% to 253 million bu.
As of May 1, the US average winter wheat yield is forecast at 53.7 bu/acre, up 2 bu from last year's average of 51.7 bu. Winter wheat harvested area is pegged at 25.7 million acres, down 1% from last year.
The total US wheat supply for 2025-26 is pegged at 2.882 billion bu, versus 2.818 billion a year earlier, with total estimated use of 1.959 billion, down from 1.977 billion in 2024-25.
In terms of demand, 2025-26 domestic wheat use is marginally higher, mostly on food use, which is projected at a record 977 million bu, up 2 million bu from last year. Exports are projected lower at 800 million bu – down from the 820 million forecasted for 2024-25 - “as the US is expected to face strong competition from most major exporters in 2025-26.”
Global wheat production for 2025-26 is projected at a record 808.5 million tonnes, as increased output for the EU, India, the United Kingdom, China, Argentina, Russia, and Canada is expected to more than offset reductions for Kazakhstan, Australia, Pakistan, and the US.
Production in No. 1 exporter Russia is estimated at 83 million tonnes, up from 81.6 million in 2024-25, with exports projected to grow to 45 million tonnes from 43.5 million. Canadian output is estimated at 36 million tonnes, versus 34.96 million a year earlier, while EU production is forecast to rebound to 136 million following last year’s rain-soaked harvest of just 122.12 million. Exports are also projected higher for Argentina and Ukraine but lower for Australia, Kazakhstan, and the US.
The projected 2025-26 US season-average farm price wheat is estimated $5.30 per bushel, down 20 cents from last year on higher stocks and lower projected US corn prices.
