Just like north of the border, US canola production is also down sharply this year.
In its first estimate of the 2021 American crop on Tuesday, the USDA pegged national output at 1.067 million tonnes, down 32% from the revised 2020 crop of 1.56 million. If accurate, it will be the smallest US canola crop since 2013.
US canola planted area was actually record high this year, up 7% from the government’s June estimate and 18% above a year earlier at 2.15 million acres. Harvested area is also estimated record high at 2.1 million acres. However, severe drought in the primary production state of North Dakota badly hurt the national yield - estimated at just 22.4 bu/acre, a drop of 16.2 bu from the 2020 average and potentially the lowest on record.
Compared with last year, yields are forecast to be down more than 14 bu/acre in four of the six major canola-producing states. The yield in No. 1 producer North Dakota is forecast at a record low 22 bu/acre, down 17.2 bu from last year.
The latest model-based production estimates from Statistics Canada in mid-September pegged the 2021 Canadian canola crop at a paltry 12.78 million tonnes. That was down from StatsCan’s August forecast of 14.74 million and more than one-third (-34.4%) below the previous year’s crop of 19.48 million and the smallest since 2010.
The average Canadian canola yield is estimated at 25.3 bu/acre. That compares to 29.2 bu in August and the 2020 average yield of 41.8 bu. It is a year-over-year decline of almost 40% and the lowest in a decade.
Source: DePutter Publishing Ltd.
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