US producers will cut back on corn by more than expected this year, with more acres instead devoted to soybeans.
Thursday’s much-anticipated USDA prospective plantings report pegged nationwide corn planted area for the 2024 growing season at 90.03 million acres, down 5% from the 94.6 million acres planted a year earlier and on the low side of pre-report trade expectations that ranged from 90 million to 93.4 million. Corn intentions also fell below the 91-million acre estimate released at the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum in February.
On the other hand, the report showed soybean intentions at 86.51 million acres. That is a 3% increase on the year and almost exactly in line with the average pre-report trade guess but roughly 1 million below the Ag Outlook Forum projection.
Going into today’s report, there had been concerns that corn acreage could surprise to the upside, but heavy US supplies and weak prices appear to have done the job of dissuading producers. However, much still depends on Midwest weather this spring, with warm, dry conditions often boosting corn acres from original intentions.
Corn futures were trading 17-18 cents/bu higher following the report’s release, while soy futures were 5-8 cents higher.
In the No. 1 corn production state of Iowa, new-crop corn acres are estimated at 12.8 million acres, down 300,000 or 2% on the year but close to the 12.9 million acres planted in 2022. Intended Illinois corn area came in at 10.9 million acres, a 3% decline on the year but still 100,000 above 2022. Indiana producers are expected to plant 6% less corn at 5.1 million acres, also down from 5.25 million in 2022.
Around the Great Lakes, Michigan corn area is projected to fall 6% to 2.25 million acres, while Ohio is expected to decline 8% to 3.3 million.
Nebraska producers intend to trim corn acres by 1% to 9.85 million acres, while Minnesota corn area is expected to fall 8% to 7.9 million.
At. 3.8 million acres, expected North Dakota corn area is down 6% on the year but still far above the rain-reduced 2.95 million in 2022.
Soybean area in the top production state of Illinois this year is estimated at 10.5 million acres, an increase of 1% from a year earlier but still below the 10.8 million planted in 2022. Iowa acres are forecast up 3% to 10.2 million, while Indiana acres, at an estimated 5.75 million, are projected up 5% year-over-year.
Michigan and Ohio soybean planted area is pegged at 2.2 million and 5 million acres, respectively, up 8% and 5% from last year.
The USDA said North Dakota producers intend to plant 6.9 million acres to soybeans in 2024, a hefty 11% increase on the year and also well above the 5.7 million planted in 2022.
Nebraska and Minnesota soybean acres are seen rising 1% and 2%, to 5.3 million and 7.5 million.
