US corn exports are on track to hit an all-time high in the 2024-25 marketing year, despite negligible demand from China and a sharp decline in Canadian purchases.
According to last week’s monthly supply-demand update from the USDA, old-crop American corn exports are projected to reach a record 2.75 billion bu. If realized, 2024-25 corn exports will exceed the 2023-24 estimate by nearly 500 million bu or 22% and top the previous high of 2.747 billion notched in 2020-21.
The milestone is especially notable given that China, which accounted for 31% of U.S. corn exports in the 2020-21 prior record year, is virtually absent from this year’s tally —importing less than 1% of total U.S. corn exports (about 33,000 tonnes) through May 2025.
Instead, strong global demand from a number of buyers has fueled the surge. US corn shipments to South Korea, Mexico, and Japan have all seen year-over-year increases of over 2 million tonnes each, with Spain at a 1.8-million tonne increase. Numerous smaller gains were also logged from countries across South America and the European Union, reflecting broad international appetite for US corn.
Export commitments — defined as the sum of shipments and outstanding sales — reached 2.731 billion bu as of July 3, putting 2024-25 nearly on pace with the former record year (as seen in the graph below).
However, the Canadian market has turned sharply downward. US corn exports to Canada have dropped by 53% compared to the same period last year, based on U.S. Census Bureau trade data through May.
