The USDA has bumped up its US corn yield and production estimates, but 2024-25 ending stocks are projected down from last month, nonetheless.
In its regular monthly supply-demand released Monday, the USDA’s first survey-based forecast put this year’s average American corn yield at a new record high of 183.1 bu/acre, up 2.1 bu from last month and almost 6 bu above the previous year’s 177.3 bu. The increase in yield was more than enough to offset a 700,000-acre reduction in harvested area to 82.7 million, resulting in a 47-million bu increase in production to 15.147 billion, still down 1% on the year.
The yield and production estimates both topped the average pre-report trade guesses of 182.1 bu/acre and 15.112 billion bu, respectively.
But while total supplies are up from last month, an expected smaller carryover from the 2023-24 crop year, along with increased demand estimates for 2024-25, dragged the new-crop ending stocks estimate 24 million bu lower from last month to 2.073 billion bu – below the average trade estimate of 2.096 billion.
Corn futures were trading 4-5 cents/bu higher following the report’s noon hour ET release.
Among the I-states, this year’s average yield is projected to be the highest in Illinois at a whopping 225 bu/acre, up 19 bu or more than 9% from last year. The average Iowa yield is seen at 209 bu/acre, an increase of 8 bu on the year, while the average Indiana yield is forecast up 4 bu/acre from 2023 at 203 bu.
At 177 bu/acre, the average expected Michigan yield is up 9 bu from last year, but Ohio is forecast down 10 bu at 188 bu/acre, amid dryness. The average North Dakota yield is pegged at 144 bu/acre, little changed from 143 bu in 2023.
Beginning stocks for 2024-25 were cut 10 million bu from July to 1.867 billion bu, as a 25-million bu increase in the 2023-24 US corn export forecast to 2.225 billion bu was partially offset by reductions in corn used for glucose and dextrose and starch.
For 2024-25, the USDA also raised its corn export forecast, up 75 million bu from July to 2.3 billion bu. On the other hand, corn used for glucose and dextrose and starch was lowered from last month, with the net result being a 60-million bu increase in total expected new-crop corn use.
The bottom line is a tighter 2024-25 US ending stocks forecast as the decline in beginning stocks and higher use exceeds the rise in production. Even so, the USDA’s estimated season-average corn price received by producers is down a dime this month at $4.20/bu, versus $4.65 in 2023-24.
Estimated world corn production is forecast lower this month, based on cuts to the EU, Russia, Serbia, Ukraine, and Moldova. For the EU, Serbia, and Russia, extreme heat and dryness in southeastern Europe and the Southern and North Caucasus districts of Russia during the month of July reduced yield prospects, the USDA said.
Corn production for Ukraine was cut 500,000 tonnes from last month to 27.2 million tonnes as higher area is more than offset by a decline in yield expectations. Yield is forecast lower based on heat and dryness in key corn regions during July, the USDA said.
Estimated corn production for Argentina and Brazil was left unchanged from last month at 51 million and 127 million tonnes, respectively.
World corn ending stocks for 2024-25 are estimated at 310.17 million tonnes this month, down from the August estimate of 311.64 million but still above 2023-24's 308.52 million.
