Farmer sentiment weakened sharply in January as concerns about financial conditions, exports and debt levels mounted across U.S. agriculture, according to the latest results from the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer, released Tuesday.
The Ag Economy Barometer Index fell to 113 in January 2026, down from 136 in December, reflecting a broad deterioration in both current conditions and future expectations. The Current Conditions Index dropped 19 points, while the Future Expectations Index slid 25 points, underscoring growing pessimism about the farm economy. The largest decline came from producers’ outlook for U.S. agriculture over the next five years, with the index for that question falling to its lowest level since September 2024.
Financial anxiety is becoming more widespread. Nearly 60% of producers now expect bad financial times over the next 12 months, up from 47% in December. Looking further ahead, 46% anticipate widespread bad times for U.S. agriculture over the next five years, almost double the share recorded a month earlier. One-half of respondents said their operations were worse off financially than a year ago, while 30% expect conditions to deteriorate further over the next 12 months.
Investment intentions also weakened. The Farm Capital Investment Index dropped to 47, its lowest reading since October 2024, as only 4% of respondents said they plan to increase machinery purchases in the coming year. Rising costs and tight margins continue to constrain spending decisions.
Debt concerns are becoming more pronounced. Twenty-one per cent of producers said they expect their operating loans to increase this year, due to carrying over unpaid operating debt from the prior year. Nearly one-third of those expecting larger loans (31%) said the increase reflects unpaid operating debt carried over from previous years, up from 23% in 2025, 17% in 2024, and only 5% in 2023.
Over 50% of the respondents indicated that payments from the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program announced late last year would be used to pay down debt. Another 25% of respondents said that they would use these payments to improve working capital. The remainder noted that these payments would be used for family living (10% of respondents) or to invest in farm machinery (12% of respondents)
Export outlooks also darkened. Sixteen per cent of respondents now expect U.S. agricultural exports to decline over the next five years, up from just 5% in December. Among corn and soybean producers, concern about soybean exports rose notably, with growing competition from Brazil cited as a key worry.
Meanwhile, as in the last few months, producers were asked if the U.S. is headed in the “right direction” or on the “wrong track”. The percentage of producers who indicated the U.S. is headed in the “right direction” dropped from 75% in December 2025 to 62% in January 2026.
The January barometer survey took place from Jan. 12-16, 2026. As a point of reference, the bearish January WASDE report was released on Jan. 12.
