American farmers have become less optimistic that President Donald Trump’s use of tariffs to try to strengthen the US trade position will pay off in the end, according to the latest monthly Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.
However, most producers also still believe the US is headed in the right direction and most still trust Trump to deliver government aid to the increasingly beleaguered American farm sector.
Released Tuesday, the results of the September ag economy barometer – which is based on a monthly survey of 400 producers across the country – show that just over half of respondents (51%) said they expect tariffs to strengthen the US agricultural economy. That is down from 63% in June and 70% in both April and May.
At the same time, 30% of respondents said they now believe tariffs will weaken the agricultural economy, and 19% are uncertain — more than double the number of respondents who were uncertain in the spring.
Trump’s ongoing tariff battle with China has resulted in that country not purchasing a single bushel of 2025-crop American soybeans. China has historically imported more than 60% of the world’s soybean supplies, with the US once serving as its top source. But retaliatory tariffs now make U.S. soybeans 20% more expensive than South American supplies, and China has turned to Brazil, which has expanded production to meet demand.
In an August statement, Caleb Ragland, President of the American Soybean Association, said high input costs and lower soybean prices – pressured by the absence of demand from China – had US growers “standing at a trade and financial precipice.”
But the ag economy barometer also said that optimism about the future is supported by farmers’ belief that US policy is “headed in the right direction” and by expectations that potential government support, like the 2019 Market Facilitation Program (MFP), will provide payments to farmers in compensation for lower commodity prices. In fact, 71% of farmers in the September survey reported that things in the US are headed in the right direction, similar to the July and August survey results.
Meanwhile, 83% of producers said a program similar to the 2019 MFP is likely if a trade war drives commodity prices lower, with 62% calling it “very likely” and another 21% saying it is “likely.”
Overall, US farmer sentiment held relatively steady in September compared to August as the barometer rose just 1 point to a reading of 126.
