Yields in the primary US Hard Red Winter states are forecast to be mostly higher this year, but the same isn’t true for the notable Soft Red states.
Released last week, the USDA’s first survey-based forecast for the 2024 American winter wheat crop pegged the average winter wheat yield at 50.7 bu/acre, little changed from 50.6 bu a year earlier.
In the No. 1 HRW state of Kansas, this year’s average yield is estimated at 38 bu/acre, up 3 bu from a year ago and the highest since 2021 at 52 bu. At 37 bu/acre, this year’s average yield in Oklahoma is projected up 9 bu from a year ago, while the average Colorado yield is seen up 3 bu to 44 bu/acre. One of the main HRW exceptions is Texas, where the 2024 average state yield is pegged at 34 bu/acre, down 3 bu from last year.
On the other hand, winter wheat yields in the SRW states of Indiana and Ohio are both seen falling 6 bu/acre year-over-year to an identical 84 bu. The average Illinois yield is projected down 4 bu from last year at 83 bu/acre, and the average Michigan yield is expected down 2 bu to 85 bu/acre.
Much of the improvement in HRW yield potential is of course due to much improved moisture conditions. Drought in the major HRW-producing states in the southern Plains has greatly diminished compared with a year ago. According to the USDA Drought Monitor, 28% of U.S. winter wheat production was in areas reported with drought as of May 7, down from 48% at the same time last year.
In addition to better yields, HRW production potential is being boosted by expectations that producers will harvest more acres this year - despite planted area being lower - mainly due to less abandonment in the southern Plains.
Conditions for SRW crops are by no means awful, but many production areas have been hit with plenty of rain over the past few weeks.
2024 US winter crop production is estimated at 1.278 billion bu, up 2% from a year earlier as a17% increase in HRW output to 705 million bu offsets a projected 23% decline in the SRW crop to 344 million bu.
