U.S. producer sentiment declined slightly in December as concerns about tariffs and American export competitiveness weighed on farmers’ outlooks, according to the latest Purdue University–CME Group Ag Economy Barometer survey released Tuesday.
The overall Ag Economy Barometer Index slipped three points from November to 136, reflecting a modest pullback in confidence after a stronger fall period. The decline was driven largely by softer long-term expectations. The Future Expectations Index fell four points to 140, while the Current Conditions Index held steady at 128, suggesting farmers’ views of present-day conditions remain relatively stable even as uncertainty clouds the outlook ahead.
Export competitiveness emerged as a key pressure point, particularly for soybeans. While farmers expressed broad optimism about U.S. agricultural exports in general - only 5% of respondents said they expect exports to decline over the next five years — the tone shifted when the focus narrowed to soybeans.
The barometer showed 13% of corn and soybean growers now expect soybean exports to fall over that time frame, up from 8% in November. At the same time, the share of producers expecting soybean exports to increase dropped sharply to 39%, down from 47% a month earlier.
Competition from Brazil loomed large in December’s survey results. A hefty 84% of corn and soybean producers said they were concerned or very concerned about the competitiveness of U.S. soybean exports relative to Brazil, with nearly half describing themselves as “very concerned.” That growing anxiety reflects Brazil’s expanding production and export capacity, which many U.S. farmers see as eroding America’s position in key global markets.
Views on tariffs also softened. Confidence that tariffs will strengthen the U.S. agricultural economy slipped to 54% in December, down from nearly 60% in October and November. Meanwhile, uncertainty about the long-run effects of tariffs continues to rise. Nineteen percent of respondents said they were unsure how tariff policy would affect agriculture over time, more than double the share recorded when the question was first asked earlier in the year.
Despite these concerns, broader sentiment about the direction of the U.S. economy remained surprisingly upbeat. Fully 75% of respondents said the country is headed in the “right direction,” the highest reading since that question was added to the survey in July.
The ag economy barometer is based on a monthly survey of 400 producers across the U.S.
