U.S. soybean supply and demand estimates for 2025-26 were unchanged this month, although an already large Brazilian crop continues to get bigger, reinforcing expectations for ample global supplies.
Tuesday's monthly supply-demand update from the USDA left U.S. ending stocks for 2025-26 at 350 million bu, up 25 million from a year earlier, with no revisions to production or domestic use. The season-average farm price also held steady at $10.20/bu. Soybean meal and oil price projections were unchanged at $295/short ton and 53 cents/lb, respectively.
Globally, the soybean outlook reflects higher production and growing inventories. Brazil’s 2025-26 soybean crop was raised by 2 million tonnes from January to a record 180 million tonnes, driven by increased planted area and strong yields supported by favorable weather. Paraguay production was also lifted, up 500,000 tonnes to 11.5 million.
The Brazil crop was revised higher than expected, with most traders and analysts only looking for an increase of about 1.2 million tonnes from January. Traders were also looking for a reduction of about 400,000 tonnes in the Argentina soybean production estimate compared to last month. The U.S. supply-demand numbers were expected to be little changed by the trade.
Soybean futures were trading 8-10 cents/bu higher this afternoon.
Despite the larger Brazilian crop, export projections were left unchanged at 114 million tonnes. Instead, more soybeans are expected to stay at home, with Brazil’s domestic crush raised by 1 million tonnes to 61 million. Paraguay followed a similar pattern, with exports steady but crush revised higher.
The USDA said the increased crush reflects stronger global soybean meal demand, particularly from the European Union, where import demand has been supported by competitive prices. While meal demand growth is expected to slow in 2025-26, it remains historically strong.
Meanwhile, China is reported to be considering additional U.S. soybean purchases, which could reshuffle trade flows without materially tightening global supplies, the USDA said. China’s soybean imports were unchanged from last month at 112 million tonnes.
Global soybean ending stocks were raised 1.1 million tonnes this month to 125.51 million, largely due to higher Brazilian inventories. That is above 2024-25 world soybean ending stocks of 123.66 million tonnes.
