US wheat ending stocks for 2023-24 were revised higher from last month - but global stocks lower - in updated USDA supply-demand estimates released Thursday.
The government’s regular monthly supply-demand update pegged US wheat ending stocks for the current marketing year at 698 million bu, up 25 million from last month’s estimate and 22% above the previous year’s stocks of 570 million. Meanwhile, global stocks were lowered 600,000 tonnes from March to 258.3 million, down 5% on the year and the lowest since 2015-16.
Trade guesses going into today’s report had US wheat ending stocks slightly lower at 690 million bu, but world stocks heavier at 259.2 million tonnes. Wheat futures were trading 6-12 cents/bu lower this afternoon.
The change in the US wheat balance sheet reflects a 30-million bu reduction in feed and residual use to 90 million bu, as per last month’s USDA grain stocks report which implied lower use during the second and third quarters of the marketing year. That reduction was only partially offset by a 5-million bu cut in expected imports to 140 million.
Globally, the USDA raised its estimate of 2023-24 EU wheat production by 500,000 tonnes from last month to 134.15 million. At the same time, however, the USDA trimmed its EU wheat export forecast by 2 million tonnes to 34.5 million, a cut attributed to heavy competition from the Black Sea region.
To that end, Russia wheat exports were revised 1 million tonnes higher from last month to 52 million, “as shipments have continued at a robust pace,” the USDA said.
Ukraine exports were bumped higher as well, up 1.5 million tonnes from March to 17.5 million – above 17.12 million a year earlier – with competitive prices and expanded operating hours at the ports of Odessa allowing more volume to move.
The US season average expected farm price is reduced a nickel this month to $7.10/bu, compared to $8.83 in 2022-23.
