US Wheat Production, Stocks Revised Sharply Higher 


Total US wheat output for 2024 has gotten a whole lot bigger than previously expected. 

The USDA’s latest monthly supply-demand estimates released Friday pegged total American all wheat production for this year at 2.008 billion bu, up 134 million from the June estimate of 1.875 billion and now almost 11% above the 2023 of crop 1.812 billion. Today’s estimate also easily topped the average pre-report trade guess of 1.909 billion. 

The season’s first survey-based production estimates put the US other spring wheat and durum crops at 578 million and 89.3 million bu, respectively, up 14% and 50% from last year and above the average trade guesses of 521 million and 75 million. 

The winter wheat production estimate continued to move higher this month, rising 4% from the June 1 forecast to 1.341 billion bu, and now up 7% on the year. 

The USDA did offset at least some of the larger production by increasing feed and residual and export demand from last month. Feed and residual was bumped 10 million bu higher to 110 million, while exports were jacked 25 million bu to 825 million – far above just 707 million the previous year. 

However, combined with a slightly larger carryin from the 2023-24 crop year – up 4 million bu to 702 million – the increase in production pushed projected 2024-25 US all wheat ending stocks to a five-year high of 856 million bu, up a hefty 98 million bu from last month and now almost 22% higher than 2023-24. 

Wheat futures were trading between 18 and 19 cents/bu lower this afternoon. 

Based on conditions as of July 1, the USDA is projecting this year’s average other spring wheat yield at 53.1 bu/acre, up more than 7 bu from last year and potentially a new record high. Other spring wheat area harvested for grain is expected to total 10.9 million acres, unchanged from the USDA’s June acreage report but 1% below 2023. 

The average US durum yield is forecast at 42.7 bu/acre, up 5.7 bu from last year, with the harvested area pegged at just over 2 million acres, up 30% from 2023. 

As for the winter wheat crop, the average 2024 yield is now seen at 52 bu/acre, up 0.6 bu from the June 1 forecast and 1.4 bu above last year. Most of this month’s increase in total winter wheat production is expected in Hard Red Winter, up 5% to 763 million bu. In contrast, Soft Red production is up less than 1% from June 1 at 344 million bu, while White winter is up 4% to 234 million. 

World wheat ending stocks for 2023-24 are estimated at 260.99 million tonnes this month, up from 259.56 million in June but still down from 271.04 million in 2022-23. 

For 2024-25, the USDA raised its estimate of Canadian wheat production by 1 million tonnes from June to 35 million, based on improved Prairie moisture. Argentina’s crop was also revised higher, up 500,000 tonnes to 18 million. On the other hand, EU production was cut 500,000 tonnes to 130 million.  

Russia and Ukraine wheat production was left steady from June at 83 million and 19.5 million tonnes, respectively. Russia’s exports were also left unchanged at 48 million. 

Projected 2024-25 global wheat ending stocks are raised 5 million tonnes this month to 257.2 million, mostly on increases for the US, China, Argentina, Pakistan, and Canada more than offsetting reductions for Russia, the EU, and Iran. 

The projected 2024-25 US season-average farm price for wheat is down a major 80 cents/bu from June to $5.70 on higher stocks, recent declines in futures and cash prices, and lower projected US corn prices 




Source: DePutter Publishing Ltd.

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