The USDA’s much anticipated Prospective Plantings report on Tuesday confirmed the expected shift out of corn and into soybeans for U.S. farmers this spring.
The report showed U.S. farmers intend to plant 95.3 million acres of corn in 2026, down 3% or 3.45 million acres from last year, while soybean area is pegged at 84.7 million acres, up 4%.
The corn figure was larger than the average pre-report trade guess of about 94.4 million, while the soybean number came in below the average guess of 85.5 million. At its annual Agricultural Outlook Forum in February, the USDA estimated new-crop corn area at 94 million and soybeans at 85 million.
Corn futures were trading little changed early this afternoon after the report’s release, while soybeans were up 9-13 cents/bu.
The state-by-state figures show that retreat from corn across much of the Corn Belt. The report showed Illinois growers intend to plant 10.9 million acres of corn, down from 11.2 million in 2025, while Iowa falls to 13.1 million from 13.55 million. Michigan slips to 2.25 million from 2.35 million, North Dakota drops to 4.4 million from 4.7 million, and Ohio is unchanged at 3.4 million. Indiana is one of the exceptions, with corn area rising to 5.4 million acres from 5.2 million a year ago. USDA said acreage decreases of 300,000 acres or more are expected in Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wisconsin.
Soybeans show the opposite pattern in several of those same states. Illinois soybean planted area is projected at 10.5 million acres, up from 10.3 million last year, while Iowa climbs to 9.9 million from 9.45 million. Indiana edges up to 5.5 million from 5.45 million, and North Dakota rises to 6.7 million from 6.55 million. Ohio, however, slips to 4.8 million acres from 4.9 million, while Michigan eases to 2.05 million from 2.08 million.
Farmers are facing a tougher cost environment this year, especially for corn, which is generally more fertilizer-intensive than soybeans. The Iran war and disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have shut fertilizer plants in the Gulf, snarled shipping, and sent Middle East urea and U.S. fertilizer prices soaring. At the same time, oil prices have stayed elevated and U.S. pump prices have climbed sharply as the conflict batters energy flows, increasing fuel and freight costs for farm operations.
