U.S. wheat production fell sharply in 2026, with smaller winter wheat, spring wheat, and durum crops all contributing to a substantial year-over-year decline, according to the USDA’s Small Grains Summary released Wednesday.
The report pegged total combined wheat output at 1.533 billion bu, down roughly 23% from the revised 2025 total of 1.989 billion bu. That was up 3 million bu from the government’s August crop production report, and slightly above trade pre-report trade estimates.
The USDA pegged 2026 winter wheat production at 1.019 billion bu, down 27% from 1.405 billion bu in 2025. Harvested area fell 18% to a record low 20.9 million acres, while the national average yield dropped to 48.8 bu/acre from 54.9 bu last year.
Kansas, the largest winter wheat-producing state, saw its average yield fall to 34 bu/acre from 51 bu in 2025, while production plunged to 200.6 million bu from 346.8 million bu.
In the Soft Red state of Michigan, the average yield of 87 bu/acre was down 3 bu from a year earlier, while production declined to 38.7 million bu from 44.1 million bu. Ohio's yield also slipped 3 bu, down to 83 bu/acre, with production falling to 39.01 million bu from 45.58 million bu.
U.S. Hard Red Winter production totaled 466 million bu, down 42% from 2025, while Soft Red Winter production fell 17% to 294 million bu.
Other spring wheat production was estimated at 449.55 million bu, down 10% from 498 million bu last year. Harvested area declined 3% to 9.38 million acres, while the national yield fell to 48 bu/acre from 51.6 bu/acre.
In the top production state of North Dakota, the average spring wheat yield declined to 51 bu/acre from 55 bu/acre in 2025, while production dropped to 228.48 million bu from 276.65 million bu.
USDA estimated 2026 durum production at 64.809 million bu, down 24% from 85.773 million bu in 2025. Harvested area dropped 22% to 1.63 million acres, while the national yield eased to 39.7 bu/acre from 40.7 bu/acre.
In North Dakota, durum yields fell to 39 bu/acre from 44 bu/acre, while production dropped 37% to 33.735 million bu. Montana's durum yield improved to 35 bu/acre from 30 bu/acre, but production edged lower to 24.5 million bu from 25.1 million bu as harvested acreage declined.
