A disease outbreak could drop 2023-24 Argentina corn production below expectations and echo into the 2024-25 crop year, according to a report from the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS).
Released Wednesday, the report pegged the 2023-24 Argentina corn crop at just 51 million tonnes, down 10% from the initial FAS projection of 57 million in January and below the USDA’s official estimate of 55 million in its April 11 supply-demand update. And there may be further downside yet, the FAS report warned, with “several” local sources forecasting a crop below 50 million tonnes.
Argentina is the world’s third-largest exporter of corn.
According to the FAS report, a corn stunt disease outbreak in north and central Argentina is impacting about 7.5 million acres. Most late-planted corn is being affected, it said, with some fields already completely written off or chopped for silage. Fields in those areas still to be harvested are expected to yield poorly, with reductions of 30% to more than 50%.
“This is an evolving disease, and its final damage will be known once the last fields are harvested in late June.”
Looking ahead to 2024-25, the FAS report said the disease outbreak will likely turn many Argentine producers off corn.
Corn planted area is expected to fall to the lowest in six years at under 15 million acres, with total production estimated at 48 million tonnes.
In addition, the drop in corn prices has reduced expected returns by almost half compared to a year ago, while soybeans are currently showing better returns, especially when combining wheat in rotation with a second soybean crop.
Another factor that could play against corn area is the fact that most weather forecasts are predicting for next spring and summer a comeback of La Nina, which in most of Argentina results in drier weather than normal, the FAS report said.
