The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) is projecting an increase in Canadian all wheat production this year, although still less than expected by Agriculture Canada.
A FAS report Wednesday pegged national all wheat output for 2024 at 33.7 million tonnes. That is up 5.4% on the year but roughly 900,000 below Ag Canada’s new-crop production estimate of just under 34.6 million.
The FAS forecast is based on Statistics Canada’s April acreage report – which pegged intended all wheat area at just over 27 million acres – a rebound in yields to the five-year average, and FAS’s own estimate of winter wheat area remaining in the spring.
Durum production is seen by FAS at 5.5 million tonnes, a year-over-year increase of 36% but also below the Ag Canada projection of 5.65 million, while spring wheat output is projected at 25.25 million, a 2% increase on the year. Winter wheat production is forecast by FAS at 2.9 million tonnes, which would be down modestly from 3.14 million in 2023.
The FAS estimate of all wheat (excl durum) production amounts to 28.15 million tonnes, below the Ag Canada forecast of 28.93 million.
The FAS reported cautioned that dry conditions may encourage farmers to plant more wheat than expected this year, which could boost year-over-year production. The downside risk is that currently dry conditions in most of the wheat-growing regions of the Prairies, particularly in Alberta, will not get the spring moisture needed and yields “will not rebound as expected.”
As for other crops, FAS sees 2024 Canadian barley production at 8.98 million tonnes, up slightly from 8.89 million last year but below the Ag Canada forecast of 9.49 million. Corn output is forecast by FAS at 15.4 million tonnes, above 15.07 million last year and up from Ag Canada’s projection of 14.92 million.
The 2024 Canadian oat crop is projected by FAS at 3.33 million tonnes, compared to 2.63 million last year and the Ag Canada forecast of 3.51 million.
