U.S. wheat production is headed for a steep year-over-year decline in 2026, with the USDA forecasting total output at just 1.53 billion bu, down 23% from 2025 and the lowest since 1970.
Most of the decline is in winter wheat – with output now forecast at roughly 990 million bu, down about 29% on the year. However, Wednesday's USDA crop production report pared the 2026 U.S. durum and other spring wheat estimates as well.
The drop in the durum estimate was particularly steep. The USDA now forecasts this year's American crop at 66.4 million bu, down 6% from its July estimate and 23% below last year.
Following a review of acreage data, USDA reduced estimated durum planted area to 1.78 million acres, down 3% from the previous acreage estimate and 19% from 2025. Harvested area is forecast at 1.73 million acres, also 19% below last year. At the same time, the national durum yield was reduced to 38.4 bu/acre, down 1.5 bu from the July forecast and 2.2 bu from 2025.
Farmers in North Dakota, by far the largest durum producer, are forecast to harvest 35.5 million bu this year, down one-third from 53.2 million in 2025 as the average state yield falls to 39 bu/acre from 44. Montana production is projected at 24 million bu, down 6% on the year, even as the state yield rises to 32 bu/acre from 30.
The decline in other spring wheat is less severe but still significant. USDA forecasts 2026 national production at 474.3 million bu, down less than 1% from its previous forecast and about 5% below 2025.
Planted spring wheat area is estimated at 9.61 million acres, up 2% from the previous acreage report but 4% below last year. Harvested area is forecast at 9.29 million acres, down 3% from 2025. The national other spring wheat yield is pegged at 51.1 bu/acre, down from 52.3 bu in July and 51.7 bu last year.
North Dakota other spring wheat output is forecast at 247 million bu, down 11% from 276.7 million last year, with its yield unchanged at 55 bu/acre. South Dakota is expected to see the largest percentage decline, with production falling 26% to 24.2 million bu from 32.6 million. Minnesota production is forecast at 68.3 million bu, down 10%. Montana stands out on the upside, with spring wheat production forecast at 76.5 million bu, up 35% from 56.6 million last year as harvested acreage expands and yields improve to 32 bu/acre from 29.
Overall, USDA expects the average U.S. wheat yield across all classes to fall to 47.8 bu/acre from 53.3 bu in 2025.
