The USDA left its 2025-26 U.S. wheat balance sheet unchanged in Tuesday’s monthly supply-demand update, while making only modest adjustments to the global outlook.
For the U.S, ending stocks remained at 931 million bu, slightly above the average pre-report trade expectation of 926 million bu, and up from 855 million the previous year.
The only domestic revision came on the price side. USDA raised the season-average farm price by a nickel to $4.95/bu, reflecting prices reported so far and expectations for the remainder of the marketing year.
Globally, 2025-26 wheat supplies were increased by 200,000 tonnes to 1.1018 billion, mainly due to higher production in Ukraine and Kazakhstan. Those gains were partly offset by a 1-million tonne reduction in Australia’s crop, which is now estimated at 36 million tonnes following the near-completion of harvest. Even with the downgrade, Australia’s crop still ranks as the country’s third largest on record.
World wheat consumption was raised 700,000 tonnes to a record 824.8 million tonnes, largely reflecting stronger feed and residual use in the European Union.
Global trade was adjusted slightly higher to 222.2 million tonnes, with larger exports projected for Argentina and Kazakhstan. Argentina’s shipments were increased 1.5 million tonnes to a record 19.5 million tonnes, as its wheat remains among the lowest-priced supplies on the world market.
However, export forecasts were trimmed for several other major suppliers, including Russia, the European Union, and Ukraine. Exports for Russia, the world’s No. 1 wheat exporter, were lowered 500,000 tonnes from last month to 43.5 million, compared to 43 million a year earlier.
Global wheat ending stocks were reduced by about 600,000 tonnes to roughly 277 million tonnes, largely due to lower inventories in Argentina tied to stronger export demand. Despite the small decline, global wheat stocks remain near a five-year high.
