US corn ending stocks are set to rise in 2024-25, despite an expected smaller crop and slightly heavier demand.
The USDA’s first supply-demand estimates for the new-crop marketing year, released Friday, pegged ending stocks at 2.102 billion bu, up from this month’s downwardly revised 2023-24 stocks of 2.022 billion and potentially the highest since 2018-19. Although 80 million bu higher than a year earlier, the 2024-25 corn ending stocks estimate fell below the average pre-report trade guess of 2.284 billion and was well down from the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum forecast of 2.532 billion in February.
On the old-crop side, a 100-million bu downward revision in the US corn ending stocks estimate from last month was due to a 50-million bu increase in exports to 2.15 billion, as well as a 50-million bu increase in corn for ethanol to 5.45 billion. Going into the report, most traders and analysts were expecting 2023-24 ending stocks to hold little changed from last month around 2.1 billion.
Corn futures were trading 8-9 cents/bu higher this afternoon, following the report’s release.
New-crop corn production is estimated at 14.86 billion bu, down 3% from last year’s record high output as a smaller planted area is only partially offset by a higher yield – projected at 181 bu/acre versus 177.3 bu in 2023. (The yield projection is based on a weather-adjusted trend and assumes normal planting progress and weather conditions).
With beginning stocks estimated at just over 2 billion bu, the total 2024-25 US corn supply is forecast at 16.907 billion bu, up 16.727 billion the previous year and the highest since 2017-18.
Total US corn use for 2024-25 is forecast to expand just under 1% relative to a year ago to 14.805 billion bu on higher domestic use and exports. Corn exports are seen rising 50 million from 2023-24 to 2.2 billion, supported by a combined 5.4-million tonne reduction in exports for Argentina, Brazil, Russia, and Ukraine.
“The United States is projected to be the world’s largest exporter for the second consecutive year, with an expected increase in global market share,” the USDA said.
Feed and residual use is estimated 50 million bu higher than a year ago at 5.75 billion, reflecting larger supplies and the expectation of lower prices.
World corn production for 2024-25 is forecast to decline from the prior year’s record to 1.22 billion tonnes, with the largest declines for the US, Ukraine, and Argentina among others.
Lower area expectations drive a decline in corn production for Argentina, where output is projected to fall 2 million tonnes year-over-year to 51 million. In contrast, Brazil corn production is forecast 5 million tonnes higher to 127 million on expanded area. Ukraine is expected to be down – falling to 27 million tonnes from 31 million - on reductions to both area and yield.
World corn ending stocks for 2024-25 are seen at 312.27 million tonnes, down from 313.08 million in 2023-24 and below the average trade guess of 317.8 million.
For 2023-24, the USDA trimmed its forecast for the Argentina corn crop by 2 million tonnes from last month to 53 million. The Argentine crop has been battered in recent weeks by leafhoppers and stunt disease. The Brazil crop was also dropped 2 million tonnes from last month to 122 million, likely due in part to increasingly dry weather for the safrinha crop in the central part of the country. In contrast, Ukraine’s corn crop was bumped 500,000 tonnes higher from April to 31 million.
World corn ending stocks for 2023-24 were lowered to 313.08 million tonnes this month, versus 318.28 million in April, and the average trade guess of 314.6 million.
