After surprising the market with a 2.7 bu/acre increase in its U.S. corn yield estimate in October, the USDA reversed course Tuesday, lowering its yield forecast for November and reducing both 2026-27 production and ending stocks by more than expected.
In its latest monthly supply-demand update on Tuesday the USDA pegged the average 2026 corn yield at 179.6 bu/acre. That is down 1.6 bu/acre from the October estimate and fell below the average pre-trade guess of 180.6 bu. With harvested area unchanged at 88.5 million acres, the smaller yield reduced estimated production by 141 million bu from October to 15.893 billion bu, 6% below a year earlier.
On the demand side, the USDA lowered projected feed and residual use by 25 million bu to 5.975 billion, while leaving food, seed and industrial use unchanged at 7.005 billion bu, including 5.65 billion bu for ethanol production. Corn exports were also reduced by 25 million bu to 3.275 billion bu, reflecting shipments and sales to date. Total use was lowered by 50 million bu to 16.255 billion bu.
As a result, projected 2026-27 ending stocks fell 91 million bu from October to 1.758 billion bu, below the average pre-report trade expectation of 1.846 billion bu. Ending stocks are also down from 2.095 billion bu in 2025-26.
The season-average farm price was lowered 10 cents from October to $4.60/bu.
Globally, the USDA raised its 2026-27 corn production forecasts for Argentina and Brazil by 2 million tonnes each, to 57 million and 141 million tonnes, respectively. Meanwhile, projected global corn ending stocks increased to approximately 281.9 million tonnes from 280.4 million in October, partly reflecting larger inventories in Ukraine and China.
Corn futures were trading between 8 and 9 cents/bu higher following the report's noon hour (EST) release.
