American farmers will plant less corn and wheat but more soybeans in 2026, according to long-term USDA projections released Friday.
The baseline projections pegged nationwide corn planted area for the spring at 95 million acres, down 3.7% from the 98.7 million planted in 2025, the highest since 1936. Total wheat area is seen slipping 2.8% on the year to 44 million, potentially the lowest on record.
On the other hand, new-crop soybean planted area is estimated at 85 million acres, up 3.9 million or 4.8% from 2025, which marked the lowest since 2019.
Released annually, the baseline projections are based on specific assumptions about macroeconomic conditions, policy, weather, and international developments, and assume no domestic or external shocks to global agricultural markets. More comprehensive projections are released in February, ahead of the USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum, scheduled Feb. 19-20.
With acreage rising and based on an average expected 2026 yield of 53 bu/acre - steady from a year earlier – US soybean productionnext year is forecast to rise almost 5% on the year to 4.465 billion bu. At 314 million bu, estimated 2026-27 soybean ending stocks are up from the current 2025-26 forecast of 290 million, while the average expected new-crop price of US$10.30/bu is down 20 cents from a year earlier.
The drop in corn planted area, along with a lower average yield estimate – down 4 bu from 2025 to 182 bu/acre - puts expected 2026 American corn output at 15.815 billion bu, down 5.5% on the year. Ending stocks are forecast to contract to 2.019 billion bu from the 2.154 billion now estimated for 2025-26. The average expected new-crop price is expected to improve modestly, up a dime from 2025-26 to $4.10/bu.
In addition to a smaller planted area, wheat is also projected to see a decline in the average yield compared to a year earlier, down 2.5 bu from 2025 to 50.8 bu/acre. Production is seen falling just over 9% to 1.819 billion bu, still slightly above the 2023 crop of 1.803 billion. Ending stocks are seen at 832 million bu, versus the 901 million now forecast for 2025-26. The average 2026-27 wheat price is expected at $5.40/bu, up 40 cents from 2025-26.
