USDA Raises Old-, New-Crop Soy Ending Stocks Forecasts

The USDA may have cut its 2019 corn yield and production forecasts, but it isn’t ready to go there yet with soybeans.

Despite American producers facing many of the same planting problems that resulted in sharp government cuts to the new-crop corn supply-demand outlook, the USDA said Tuesday that with several weeks still remaining in the planting season, it was holding its soybean yield and production estimates unchanged from last month at 49.5 bu/acre and 4.15 billion bu, respectively.

Planted and harvested area estimates were similarly unchanged from last month, holding at 84.6 million and 83.8 million acres.

However, the USDA did lower its old-crop soybean export forecast from last month, trimming it by 75 million bu to 1.7 billion, based on lower-than-expected shipments in May and a lower import forecast for China. With that reduction, projected 2018-19 soybean ending stocks were raised an identical 75 million bu to 1.07 billion bu.

With the larger carryin from the old-crop marketing year – and no other supply-demand changes – projected 2019-20 soybean ending stocks were revised 75 million bu higher from last month, to 1.045 billion bu.

Going into today’s report, most traders and analysts were anticipating a smaller new-crop soybean ending stocks number of 987 million bu. Soybean futures were trading 2-3 cents lower after the report’s release at the noon hour.

The 2019-20 season-average price for soybeans is forecast at $8.25/bu, up 15 cents from last month “reflecting the impact of higher corn prices.” Soybean meal prices are forecast at $295/short ton, up $5 from May, while the soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 29.5 cents/lb.

Brazil and Argentina soybean production estimates for 2019-20 were steady from last month at 123 million and 53 million tonnes.

At an estimated 112.66 million tonnes, worldwide soybean ending stocks for 2019-20 are little changed this month from 113.09 million in May and 112.8 million a year earlier.

Source: DePutter Publishing Ltd.

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