U.S. soybean production and ending stocks for 2026-27 have both been revised higher from last month, even as the average expected yield declined.
The USDA in updated monthly supply-demand estimates on Wednesday projected new-crop U.S. soybean ending stocks at 320 million bu, up 10 million from last month and just slightly below the previous year's 325 million.
USDA raised 2026-27 soybean production by 44 million bu to 4.519 billion bu. The larger crop reflected an increase of 1.4 million harvested acres to 85.8 million, which more than offset a reduction in the expected yield.
The agency's first survey-based yield estimate came in at 52.7 bu/acre, down 0.3 bu from July and below last year's record.
Overall U.S. soybean supplies were raised 39 million bu from last month, with the increase in production partly offset by lower beginning stocks following a modest increase in 2025-26 crush.
On the demand side, the USDA raised the projected 2026-27 soybean crush by 30 million bu to 2.78 billion bu, up from 2.655 a year earlier, reflecting robust processing margins and stronger demand for soybean meal and soybean oil. The USDA left its 2026-27 U.S. soybean export forecast unchanged at 1.66 billion bu, compared to 1.52 billion the previous year. With the increase in supply exceeding the additional crush demand, projected ending stocks ticked higher from July.
The season-average farm price was left unchanged at US$11.40/bu.
USDA also made relatively modest changes to the global soybean balance sheet.
Global 2026-27 soybean ending stocks were raised slightly to 124.2 million tonnes.
Production in Brazil was up 500,000 tonnes from last month to 180.5 million, with Argentina down an identical amount to 49.5 million.
