Trade expectations ahead of Tuesday’s USDA reports point to a clear acreage shift away from corn and toward soybeans, with wheat area seen staying historically tight.
The USDA is scheduled to release its 2026 Prospective Plantings and quarterly grain reports at noon ET on March 31.
Analysts surveyed by Reuters expect U.S. farmers to plant 94.371 million acres of corn in 2026, down from 98.788 million last year, while soybean seedings are pegged at 85.549 million acres, up from 81.215 million in 2025. Spring wheat area is seen at 9.843 million acres, slightly below 9.99 million a year ago and the lowest since 1970. Broader trade estimates put all wheat area near 44.6 million acres and winter wheat at about 32.7 million.
The trade’s view reflects mounting pressure from higher fertilizer and diesel costs due to the war in Iran, which have hurt the economics of more input-intensive crops such as corn and wheat.
Those trade ideas sit close to, but slightly above, USDA’s early-season baseline from its annual Agricultural Outlook Forum in February. At that event, USDA projected 2026 planted acreage at 94 million acres for corn, 85 million for soybeans, and 45 million for all wheat. USDA’s forum outlook also noted combined spring and durum wheat plantings were expected to edge lower as some Northern Plains acres shift toward soybeans and other oilseeds.
On stocks, the market is bracing for large old-crop inventories. Trade estimates center on March 1 corn stocks near 9.036 billion bu, soybean stocks around 2.063 billion, and wheat stocks roughly 1.295 billion.
