The USDA tightened its outlook for old- and new-crop US corn in updated monthly supply-demand estimates Thursday.
The primary revision compared to a month earlier was to the 2024-25 US corn export forecast, which was raised 50 million bu from last month to 2.65 billion bu. With no other supply-demand changes, the increase in the export forecast went directly to the bottom line, resulting in an identical-sized reduction in the old-crop ending stocks estimate to 1.365 billion.
The smaller carry-in from the old-crop marketing year then served to reduce the 2025-26 US corn ending stocks estimate by 50 million bu to 1.75 billion.
This month’s increase in the 2024-25 export forecast is based on reported US Census Bureau shipments through the month of April, inspection data during the month of May, and current outstanding sales, the USDA said.
Most traders and analysts were expecting a reduction in both the old- and new-crop ending stocks estimates from last month, although the actual cuts were deeper than anticipated. Corn futures were trading anywhere from ¾ of a cent to 2 cents higher after the report’s noon hour EST release.
Globally, the USDA left its 2024-25 Argentina and Brazil corn production estimates unchanged at 50 million and 130 million tonnes, respectively. Projected Brazil exports were unchanged at 43 million tonnes, but Argentina’s shipments were dropped 1 million tonnes from last month to 34.5 million.
(Conab data released this morning showed the Brazilian corn crop at 128.25 million tonnes).
World corn ending stocks for 2024-25 are pegged at 285.04 million tonnes this month, down from 287.09 million in May. New-crop global ending stocks dropped 2.6 million from last month to 275.24 million.
The 2025-26 season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged this month at $4.20/bu, versus $4.35 for 2024-25.
