The USDA has tightened up its US old-crop corn outlook but supplies and ending stocks are projected to build in 2025-26.
In its first supply-demand estimates for the upcoming 2025-26 marketing year on Monday, the USDA pegged American ending stocks at 1.8 billion bu. That is up 385 million from this month’s downwardly revised 2024-25 ending stocks but still below the average pre-report trade guess of 2.042 billion.
If accurate, US corn ending stocks for 2025-26 would be the highest in absolute terms since 2019-20, while the stocks to use ratio of 11.6% would be up from 9.3% in 2024-25.
On the old-crop side, corn ending stocks fell 50 million bu from last month to 1.415 billion on an identical-sized increase in the export forecast to 2.6 billion.
The USDA is forecasting the 2025 US corn crop at 15.82 billion bu, up 6% on the year on larger planted and harvested areas, as well as a higher average yield. At 95.3 million acres, planted area would be the highest in a decade, while harvested area is estimated at 87.4 million acres, up 5.4% from last year’s 82.9 million. The average corn yield is projected at 181 bu/acre, versus last year’s 179.3 bu, although it is worth noting the USDA has consistently overestimated corn yields the past number of years.
The total new-crop supply, at 17.26 billion bu, would be up from 16.655 billion the previous year and a new record high if realized.
On the demand side, the USDA sees total 2025-26 US corn use rising 1% on the year to a new high of 15.46 billion bu. Exports are projected at 2.675 billion, up 75 million from 2024-25, based on lower prices. Feed and residual use is expected to rise 150 million bu from last year to 5.9 billion, while corn for ethanol use is forecast steady at 5.5 billion bu.
Globally, Brazil corn production for 2024-25 was raised 4 million tonnes from last month to 130 million, with the country’s 2025-26 output projected at 131 million. Brazil exports for 2024-25 were dropped 1 million tonnes from April to 43 million and forecast to hold steady at that level in 2025-26.
At 50 million tonnes, 2024-25 Argentina corn production was unchanged from April, but exports were trimmed 500,000 tonnes to 35.5 million. For 2025-26, Argentina corn production is seen rising to 53 million tonnes, with exports at 37 million.
China’s corn imports for 2024-25 were unchanged from April at 8 million tonnes, but are estimated to grow to 10 million in 2025-26.
World corn ending stocks for 2024-25 came in at 287.29 million tonnes, down slightly from 287.65 million April. Ending stocks for 2025-26 are pegged at 277.84 million.
The US season-average farm price for corn is projected at $4.20/bu in 2025-26, down 15 cents on the year.
Corn futures were trading mixed this afternoon, with old-crop July a few cents lower and new-crop December a few cents higher.
