The USDA has tightened its 2026-27 U.S. corn outlook from last month, as an increase in production was more than blunted by expected higher export demand.
The USDA's monthly supply-demand updated on Wednesday pegged U.S. corn ending stocks for 2026-27 at 1.653 billion bu, down 137 million bu from the July forecast as stronger export demand absorbs more of the available supply.
This year's American crop was estimated at 16.013 billion bu, up just 13 million bu from July’s 15.987 billion bu forecast and the second-largest harvest on record. Planted area was raised 1.4 million acres from June to 96.7 million, while harvested area increased 1.2 million acres to 88.6 million.
However, those acreage gains were largely offset by a lower yield. USDA’s first survey-based yield estimate came in at 180.7 bu per acre, down 2.3 bu from last month.
Meanwhile, beginning stocks were lowered 75 million bu to 1.945 billion bu, reflecting stronger 2025-26 exports.
For 2026-27, total corn use was increased 75 million bu to 16.33 billion bu, entirely due to a matching increase in exports to 3.275 billion bu, with the USDA citing stronger global demand and constrained export prospects for Ukraine amid its ongoing war with Russia and missile strikes on each other's port facilities.
With use rising more than supply, ending stocks dropped from July’s 1.79 billion bu projection. The tighter balance sheet prompted USDA to raise its season-average farm price by a dime to US$4.50/bu.
World 2026-27 corn ending stocks were reduced 600,000 tonnes this month to 274.66 million tonnes.
Ukraine’s 2026-27 corn production forecast was raised 1.8 million tonnes to 31.8 million tonnes, but exports were cut 1 million to 22 million, also 1 million below 2025-26.
European Union production was reduced sharply amid widespread heat and drought, falling to 50.2 million tonnes from 53.78 million in July and 56.8 million a year earlier.
For Brazil, USDA raised its 2025-26 corn production estimate by 2 million tonnes to 140 million tonnes.
