US soybean exports to China are poised to end 2025 well below historical levels, even after Beijing agreed to resume purchases, according to a pair of Purdue University ag economists.
The expected decline comes as Brazil and Argentina have sharply increased their own shipments to China, reshaping global soybean trade flows and diminishing America’s once-dominant position in the world’s largest import market, Michael Langemeier and Joana Colussi said in an extension research publication Friday.
Under the new U.S.–China trade deal announced in November, China has pledged to buy 12 million tonnes of American soybeans in the final two months of the year and at least 25 million tonnes annually from 2026 through 2028. While the agreement ends months of retaliatory restrictions, it falls short of restoring US export volumes to pre-trade war norms, the economists said.
Before the suspension took effect in May, the US had shipped nearly 6 million tonnes to China in early 2025. If China meets its late-year commitment, total exports for 2025 would reach about 18 million tonnes — roughly one-third below the 26.8 million tons sent in 2024. That would make 2025 the weakest year for US soybean exports to China since 2018, when US President Donald Trump’s first trade war reduced shipments to just 8 million tonnes.
Even China’s longer-term purchase commitments fall short of historical benchmarks, Langemeier and Colussi wrote. Annual Chinese purchases of 25 million tonnes through 2028 would still be 14% below the five-year average of 29 million between 2020 and 2024, and slightly below the 10-year average of 27 million. China previously absorbed about 60% of U.S. soybean exports in the years before the trade conflict, compared with about half since 2020.
And although soybean futures have rallied to near US$11/bu, the economists said that after accounting for the basis, cash prices in many cases remain the break-even point for farmers.
Meanwhile, South America has stepped into the gap left by the absence of US supplies. Brazil has moved aggressively to capture additional market share, exporting a record 79 million tonnes of soybeans to China between January and October, nearly 80% of its total exports and already surpassing its full-year 2024 shipments. With roughly 100 million tonnes exported overall this year, Brazil is overwhelmingly the dominant supplier to China.
Argentina has also benefited. Between January and September, it exported 7.6 million tonnes of soybeans, with 90% destined for China. That nine-month total is already about 65% higher than Argentina’s full-year shipments in 2024, the research article said.
The full research publication can be found here
