As DTN senior meteorologist Bryce Anderson sees it, most of the American corn and soybean crops should make it to maturity.
Speaking as part of a DTN-sponsored webinar on Monday, Anderson presented long-term weather maps that suggest generally above-normal temperatures for the main Midwest production region through the remainder of September and normal to slightly above normal readings for October. If accurate, the warmer temperatures should lower the risk of a potentially damaging first frost for crops that will need all the fall warmth they can get to make it to maturity.
“I think we’re going to get decent conditions,” Anderson said.
Typically, the first frost in the American Midwest occurs sometime between late September and the first couple of weeks of October.
Due to late planting caused by the overly wet spring, corn and soybean crop development is lagging badly as the growing season winds down. According to Monday’s USDA crop progress report, just 11% of the nationwide corn crop had reached maturity as of Sunday, up a modest 5 points from the previous week and far behind 33% last year and 24% on average. Meanwhile, an estimated 92% of the soybean crop was setting pods as of Sunday, up from 86% a week earlier but behind 100% last year and 99% on average.
Anderson acknowledged earlier concerns about a possible freeze in September that might spell doom for a number of crops but not only did that threat never materialize, this month appears actually appears on track to finish up a few degrees warmer than normal. Moving into October, he said temperatures might trend a bit cooler-than-normal for the Dakotas, but should be about normal for most other parts of the country.
“The big feature for me is the prospect for freezing temperatures has moved all the way into October,” Anderson said.
The only caveat for October is the potential for a wetter bias, which means the harvest will be later and slower, Anderson said. However, mostly drier weather is expected for November, along with milder temperatures.
Source: DePutter Publishing Ltd.
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