A surge in wheat prices helped push the world food commodity price index higher in July, as geopolitical tensions, heatwaves, and firmer energy markets all featured prominently.
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said Friday its commodity food price index averaged 131.1 points in July 2026. That is up 0.6% from June and 1% above its year-earlier level but still more than 18% below its March 2022 all-time high in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Still, it marks the highest level since January 2023.
The FAO cereal price index climbed 3.4% from June to 113.8 points, nearly 7% above July 2025.
Wheat led the advance in cereal prices, with global values climbing 5.8% during the month and standing nearly 10% above a year earlier. FAO attributed the increase to heightened concerns over continued disruptions to Black Sea export flows and damage to export infrastructure, along with heatwaves that have reduced crop yield prospects in several major producing regions, most notably the EU.
World corn prices rose 3.6% from June amid concerns over hot and dry conditions in parts of the U.S. Corn Belt. Firmer energy prices tied to increased geopolitical tensions also provided support. Sorghum prices edged higher alongside corn. Barley bucked the trend, falling 1.9% as favourable crop prospects in Australia and the Black Sea region outweighed heat-related yield losses in the EU. Global rice prices were broadly unchanged.
Vegetable oils also contributed to the rise in the overall food index. The FAO vegetable oil price index increased 2% from June to 195.7 points, its highest level since June 2022.
Higher palm and soybean oil prices more than offset declines in sunflower and rapeseed oil.
Palm oil prices increased for a second consecutive month, supported by firm demand from Indonesia’s biodiesel sector and higher crude oil prices despite seasonally improving production in Southeast Asia. Soybean oil values also strengthened amid robust U.S. biofuel feedstock demand and increased global import demand.
Sunflower and rapeseed oil prices declined on expectations of larger 2026-27 supplies, although renewed Black Sea tensions and concerns about export disruptions limited losses.
Elsewhere, the FAO meat price index fell 2.8% from its record June level as poultry, pork and beef prices weakened, although lamb prices reached a new high.
The dairy price index declined 0.7%, with lower milk powder and butter prices outweighing stronger cheese values.
Sugar prices rose 5.6% amid concerns that hot, dry European weather and El Nino-related conditions could hurt production in major Asian growing regions, while expectations for stronger Brazilian ethanol demand also provided support.
