The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is warning that an El Nino weather pattern is developing and could significantly affect weather around the world over the next several months.
In a statement Tuesday, the organization said there is now an 80% chance El Nino conditions will form between June and August 2026, with better than a 90% chance the pattern continues into late fall. Forecast models suggest the event will likely become moderate to strong.
“The science is clear: El Nino is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty. The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a video statement.
The El Nino warming pattern often changes rainfall and temperature patterns around the world, sometimes creating drought in some regions while increasing flooding risks in others. For the next few months, forecasts call for warmer-than-normal temperatures across most of the world – raising the threat of heatwaves, drought development, wildfires, and increased stress on water supplies.
“For the June-July-August season, forecasts project a nearly universal dominance of above-normal temperatures in nearly all parts of the globe,” the WMO said. “These increase risks of heat stress and compounding hazards in some regions and accelerate the development of drought conditions where rainfall is reduced.
Under the influence of El Nino, wetter conditions often develop in parts of southern South America and the southern U.S., while drier weather commonly affects places like Australia, Indonesia, Central America, and parts of Asia. Some early forecasts already point toward below-normal rainfall in South Asia and parts of Africa.
