War in Ukraine and drought on the US southern Plains notwithstanding, 2022-23 global wheat output will still top the previous year, according to the latest cereal supply and demand brief from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations.
Released last week, the brief pegged expected new-crop wheat production at 782 million tonnes, down 2 million from the FAO’s April estimate although up from the previous year’s 777 million.
The month-to-month reduction is mostly due to diminishing production prospects in the US, where persisting drought conditions are expected to curb winter wheat yields. However, underpinned by a price-driven expansion in planted area, total American wheat output is still forecast to increase to 50 million tonnes in 2022, about 5 million tonnes (11%) above a year earlier. Meanwhile, the FAO said it also projecting a ‘substantial’ recovery in Canadian wheat production following the devastating 2021 drought across the Prairies.
The outlook for Russia remains broadly favourable this year, as conducive weather conditions continue to point to an upturn in yields compared to a year earlier, the FAO said. In the European Union, the forecast for wheat production has been raised to 139.5 million tonnes this month on account of recent official data indicating a small year-to-year increase in wheat plantings, compared to earlier expectations. However, reflecting persistent dryness in southern areas, an anticipated decline in yields in 2022 is expected to offset the effects of the larger plantings, keeping the output unchanged on a yearly basis.
In Asia, small production increases are forecast for India and Pakistan in 2022, while in the Middle East countries, wheat production is forecast at average levels, supported by generally good weather. However, in North Africa, the effects of drought conditions, which are particularly acute in Morocco, are likely to result in sizeable production declines, the FAO added.
As for Ukraine, a below average crop in 2022 is expected as the Russian invasion continues. Wheat harvested area in Ukraine is projected to fall by at least 20%, with yields also likely to decline due to “conflict-related disruptions” to agricultural operations prior to the harvest period, the FAO said.
Source: DePutter Publishing Ltd.
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